NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

Week 2 NCAA Football Ratings & Picks

Well, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked.  3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”. Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here.  Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher.  Statistically, Georgia had the better…