Daily Archives: August 25, 2017

Projecting Conferences & Playoff

Posted on August 25, 2017
By Cade MasseyCollege Football College Football 2017 Blog

We’re going to try to update this week feature weekly. At the moment we’re just dropping our summary in here, showing the 27 teams our models give >2% chance of making the playoff. We organized them by conference because that will be a critical dynamic in the playoff conversation. We include our current power ranking,…

Expected Wins and SOS

Posted on August 25, 2017
By Cade MasseyCollege Football College Football 2017 Blog

  To forecast win totals we simulate the season a few thousand times, accounting for opponent, game location and byes. In general we expect better teams to have more wins, obviously. But there is a lot more variation in those expectations than you might expect. We can ask how many games a team *should* win,…