Daily Archives: August 25, 2017

Projecting Conferences & Playoff

We’re going to try to update this week feature weekly. At the moment we’re just dropping our summary in here, showing the 27 teams our models give >2% chance of making the playoff. We organized them by conference because that will be a critical dynamic in the playoff conversation. We include our current power ranking,…

Expected Wins and SOS

  To forecast win totals we simulate the season a few thousand times, accounting for opponent, game location and byes. In general, we expect better teams to have more wins, obviously. But there is a lot more variation in those expectations than you might expect. We can ask how many games a team *should* win,…