Happy New Year from Cade and me! It’s been an excellent year personally and professionally for both of us. We made improvements to our NFL model and had our best regular season yet, and we recovered from a dreadful start to finish above .500 in our first year of college football picks (with an excellent record…
Merry Christmas everybody! Heading into the final week of the season, our picks appear poised for another profitable year. Last week was another strong week, with our Big Plays going 1-1, our Other Plays 1-0, and Break-Even or Better selections 2-1. In terms of line move value, both Big Plays did not move. Our Falcons pick moved 2.5 points…
Won our two “official” plays last week, lost both of our BEOB picks (one unfortunately pushed at the closing line). Sorry for the delay in getting the ratings updated this week. I run the code and send the ratings to Cade, who normally puts together the graphics, but Cade is traveling to Argentina this week and…
After a week off of college football picks, it’s time to go bowling! Yes, that is yours truly in the picture. And before you criticize my two-finger technique, I did bowl a 277 that way. I know many “experts” buy into theories of motivation, letdowns, etc. when handicapping bowl games. While I’m not going to…
Had a little bump in the road last week, going 2-3 overall (1-0 on Big Plays, 1-3 on Other Plays). This week we have a very small slate of games we like. As has been the case in previous years, the differences between how we value teams and how the market values them gets smaller later in…
We had another profitable week in the NFL, with our two official plays both winning and our leans going 2-2. For the season, we’re now at 61.54% for our “official” plays and 60.23% if you include our Break-Even or Better (which we expect to win at a 52.5%-54% clip). Lines are widely available as of 12:50pm EST…
Last Saturday was the most exciting day of college football I can remember! There were two critical coaching decisions that have been analyzed and overanalyzed in the aftermath, and before I get to this week’s picks, I want to offer my two cents. I think Brady Hoke had the right idea when he decided to attempt…
Coming off of an excellent weekend! Went up to New Haven for the Yale/Harvard game, and then watched the Massey-Peabody picks nearly go undefeated. (Naturally, it was my Redskins that kept us from perfection.) Overall, M-P picks went 7-1 on the weekend, including 3-0 on our Big Plays. The market generally agreed with our numbers, as…
We rebounded very nicely from a disappointing Week 12, going 8-4 overall and 4-0 on Big Plays. That runs our record on Big Plays to 21-11! As usual, I like to monitor the line moves and if the moves agree with our picks. The lines moved very strongly in our favor on our biggest plays, averaging…
We had a decent performance last week, going 0-1 on Big Plays, 2-0 on Other Plays, and 1-1-1 on Break-Even or Better selections. There was a lot of line movement on games we picked: Green Bay, our big selection, moved from +6 all the way to +3, Arizona moved from -6.5 to -9.5, and Carolina moved from -2.5…