Been a very interesting (and unusual) start to the season for our picks. After winning both our Big Plays last week (TEN, CHI) and losing both Other Plays (BAL, NO) we find ourselves 9-1 on the Big Plays, but 2-9 on Other Plays. We expect Big Plays to do better, since we have more confidence in…
About to board a flight, so no time for a writeup this week. Lines are consensus as of noon Vegas time on Thursday. Big Plays (7-1 YTD) Tennessee +2.5 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: TEN -3.0] Chicago +9 at Kansas City [MP Line: CHI +6.3] Other Plays (2-7 YTD) Baltimore -6.5 vs. Cleveland [MP…
Our Week 3 performance left a lot to be desired, despite winning our only Big Play (on Tennessee). All three of our Other Plays lost, and none was even close. And our leans went 1-2. So not a fabulous weekend for MP picks. This week, we show even less value than last. Lines for this…
My central thesis of last week’s picks was overwhelmingly vindicated, as our Big Plays went 3-1, with wins by Denver (+3), New England (-1), and Dallas (+5) offset only by Detroit’s (+2.5) loss. That said, it would be disingenuous not to mention that the Broncos were outplayed, and were extremely lucky to get the win. But our strongest play of the weekend,…
Week 1 saw our picks go 2-2, with both Big Plays winning and both Other Plays losing. Opening week in the NFL is always interesting. Every year there are a few teams that surprise everyone with how well or poorly play. And every year the market loves to overreact to this one-week sample size, creating narratives to…
The NFL season is finally here and, despite some misgivings, we’re going to continue to post weekly NFL picks. As you may recall from previous seasons, we do not factor in offseason roster transactions in our ratings; in fact, individual players (and coaches) are not considered at all with the exception of quarterback. Still, we’ve done…
Over the last year or so, we’ve gotten the occasional question about where to find our historical performance. And given the changes in our site over the past few years, it’s not immediately obvious where to find this. In 2010, I started posting NFL picks sporadically in the wee hours of Sunday morning. By 2011, we had…
Divisional Recap We did not have an official play last week, but did have Carolina (+10.5) at a Break-Even or Better selection. After playing the first three quarters close, the Panthers fell by 14. Divisional Closing Line Value *Carolina: picked +10.5, closed +13.5, CLV -3.0 Conference Championship Picks Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays…
Bowl Game Recap: We had an undefeated bowl season, going 5-0 on our official plays and benefitted from two amazing fourth quarter comebacks. In our lone Big Play, Michigan State (+3) rallied from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Baylor. And on Christmas Eve, Central Michigan (+3.5) came back from down 35 in the fourth quarter to lose…
Wild Card Recap: We didn’t have any official plays on last weekend’s action. However, we did have three Break-Even or Better selections, which fared well, going 2-1. Baltimore (+3) won outright in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (-3/-3.5) blew out Cincinnati, and Dallas (-6.5) came from behind in the second half to win, but failed to cover. Wild…