Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

College Football Week 10 Picks

Week 9 Recap: Our picks went 3-3-1 last weekend, with Big Plays 1-2-1 and Other Plays 2-1. We were oh-so-close to a profitable weekend and a 3-0 record on Other Plays, but a last-minute fumble by Alabama (-17) at the Tennessee 1-yard line cost us the cover. I probably jinxed that game by mentally grading it too early, when…

NFL Week 8 Picks

Sorry to say that we’ll be pushing picks back to Thursday mornings. The good news and bad news is that publishing our picks appears to be having an impact on the market.  I know that posting picks later means there may be less value, but I don’t have much of a choice in the matter, as I can’t justify compromising my…

College Football Week 9 Picks

Sorry to say that we’ll be pushing picks back to Thursday mornings. The good news and bad news is that publishing our picks appears to be having an impact on the market.  I know that posting picks later means there may be less value, but I don’t have much of a choice in the matter, as I can’t justify compromising my…

NFL Week 7 Picks

Week 6 Recap:  Only had one official play last week, a Big Play on Miami, which either won or pushed depending on what line you got. That will get graded as half a win and half a push (per what I wrote last week). If you got it at +3 that is certainly a tough break,…

College Football Week 8 Picks

Week 7 Recap: Another excellent weekend for our picks. Our official plays went 6-0 and our leans went 1-2. Both our big plays won handily: Rice (+2) beat Army 41-20 and Troy (-6.5) beat New Mexico State 41-24. Our Other Plays were all underdogs: Illinois (+25.5) played Wisconsin close, losing 38-28. UNLV (+10.5) won outright against…

NFL Week 6 Picks

Week 5 Recap: Only two official plays last week, which split. Buffalo (+7) capitalized on Detroit’s kicking woes for a 17-14 comeback win; Dallas (-6) won in overtime, but failed to cover. Our Break Even or Better plays also went 1-1. Kansas City (+6) got the cover, losing 22-17. The line closed at KC +4.5, which goes…

College Football Week 7 Picks

Week 6 Recap: Excellent weekend, going 6-2 overall, bringing our season record to 20-13. After underperforming last season, and starting this season slowly, our Other Plays finally are in the money after a 3-0 Week 6. Kansas (+26) pulled through with a late touchdown, taking our play from a push to a win, while Arizona State (+11.5) and Northwestern…

NFL Week 5 Picks

Week 4 Recap: Week 4 was light on official plays, but had five games that made our unofficial Break-Even or Better listing. Our Big Plays went 1-1. The New York Giants (+4) benefitted from a third-quarter Kirk Cousins clinic on how not to be an NFL quarterback and embarrassed my Redskins 45-14. The Bears (+1.5) could not figure…

College Football Week 6 Picks

Week 5 Recap: Week 5 was our highest volume week of the year, and ended up close to a wash. Our perfect record on Big Plays was snapped when Oregon State (+9) lost to USC, 35-10. I was personally very impressed by USC coach Steve Sarkisian’s fourth-down aggressiveness, going for it multiple times inside his own 45 yard-line with a…

NFL Week 4 Picks

A happy recap this week, as our official plays went 3-0. We had two big plays on NFC (L)east teams. The first was Dallas (-1.5) on the road against a St. Louis squad starting some guy named Austin Davis. Massey-Peabody is the only rating system I know of that was bullish on the Cowboys going into the season. And…