Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

CFB Week 11 Lines

Figured I’d post a full set of lines, for anyone who’s interested. I’m including all Week 11 games, including those that have been played and those that have already started. Akron -3 vs. Bowling Green Toledo -10.9 at Kent State Ohio -1.9 vs. Buffalo Northern Illinois -4.6 at Ball State Clemson -23.5 at Wake Forest…

Week 10 NFL Picks

Week 9 Recap: A small-volume, losing week in the NFL last week (1-2). We were on the right side of one of the two blowouts, and on the wrong side of the one close game. Miami (-1.5) surprised everyone in how thoroughly they dominated the San Diego, winning 37-0. As much as I’d like to say ‘yeah, we…

College Football Week 11 Picks

Week 10 Recap: We dropped both of our plays last week, in our lowest volume week of the year. Fresno State (-12.5), our Big Play, was blown out by a Wyoming team that we rated as one of the worst in the country. Fresno wasn’t just unlucky either; they drop 10 spots to #86 in the…

NFL Week 9 Picks

Week 8 Recap: A solid week, going 2-1 on our official plays last week. And finally we managed to win some Break-Even or Better plays, going 2-0 on those. Baltimore (Pk) lost a heartbreaker at Cincinnati. Baltimore rallied from an 11-point second-half deficit to take the lead, only for Cincy to answer with a late TD. Still, it seemed…

College Football Week 10 Picks

Week 9 Recap: Our picks went 3-3-1 last weekend, with Big Plays 1-2-1 and Other Plays 2-1. We were oh-so-close to a profitable weekend and a 3-0 record on Other Plays, but a last-minute fumble by Alabama (-17) at the Tennessee 1-yard line cost us the cover. I probably jinxed that game by mentally grading it too early, when…

NFL Week 8 Picks

Sorry to say that we’ll be pushing picks back to Thursday mornings. The good news and bad news is that publishing our picks appears to be having an impact on the market.  I know that posting picks later means there may be less value, but I don’t have much of a choice in the matter, as I can’t justify compromising my…

College Football Week 9 Picks

Sorry to say that we’ll be pushing picks back to Thursday mornings. The good news and bad news is that publishing our picks appears to be having an impact on the market.  I know that posting picks later means there may be less value, but I don’t have much of a choice in the matter, as I can’t justify compromising my…

NFL Week 7 Picks

Week 6 Recap:  Only had one official play last week, a Big Play on Miami, which either won or pushed depending on what line you got. That will get graded as half a win and half a push (per what I wrote last week). If you got it at +3 that is certainly a tough break,…

College Football Week 8 Picks

Week 7 Recap: Another excellent weekend for our picks. Our official plays went 6-0 and our leans went 1-2. Both our big plays won handily: Rice (+2) beat Army 41-20 and Troy (-6.5) beat New Mexico State 41-24. Our Other Plays were all underdogs: Illinois (+25.5) played Wisconsin close, losing 38-28. UNLV (+10.5) won outright against…

NFL Week 6 Picks

Week 5 Recap: Only two official plays last week, which split. Buffalo (+7) capitalized on Detroit’s kicking woes for a 17-14 comeback win; Dallas (-6) won in overtime, but failed to cover. Our Break Even or Better plays also went 1-1. Kansas City (+6) got the cover, losing 22-17. The line closed at KC +4.5, which goes…