Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

College Football Week 12 Picks

We continued our mid-season surge last weekend, sweeping both our Big Plays (2-0) and Other Plays (2-0). We didn’t just win, we WON. Stanford blew out Oregon as a 10-point dog, New Mexico entertained thoughts of an upset as a 24.5-point dog before finally succumbing to Boston College by 14, and Syracuse won by 17 as a…

NFL Week 9 Picks

Another solid week for our NFL picks, and would’ve been even better if not for my brain fart with Jacksonville playing in London (and not at home). Still, Big Plays went 2-1, Other Plays went 2-1, and our one Break-Even or Better pick won. For the year, we are now 27-18-1 (60%) on our picks, and 32-22-1…

College Football Week 10 Picks

We continued our recent streak of dominance last week, going 2-0 on Big Plays, 3-0-1 on Other Plays, and 2-1 on MP Leans.  After our dreadful start, this means we have fought back to the 50% mark for all picks. I’ve gotten some questions recently about what the threshold is for the different pick categories. The quick-and-easy answer:…

NFL Week 8 Picks

A very big weekend for Massey-Peabody NFL picks in Week 7.  Our lone Big Play, won handily.  Our Other Plays swept, going 5-0, with both the Jets and Colts winning outright as underdogs, and Houston losing by one point.  Our new category, Break-Even or Better–picks we expect will (barely) cover the vig, but are not strong enough for us…

College Football Week 9 Picks

Posting picks 12 hours earlier this week, since I won’t be available tomorrow.  Last week, we didn’t have any Big Plays, but our Other Plays went 2-1, while MP Leans went 2-3.  More importantly, all but one pick moved our way.  Louisiana Tech moved from +6.5 to +3.5, Michigan from -7.5 to -8.5, Colorado State from +7 to +6.5,…

College Football Week 8 Picks

Won our lone Big Play last week, with Kansas State playing Baylor close.  Split the remaining picks, going 1-1 on Other Plays and MP Leans.  If we had included Texas, which should have been a Big Play but Cade vetoed, we would have had an additional win.  As a result of Texas’s win, we are now Peabody-Massey Analytics for…

NFL Week 7 Picks

Pretty blah week on the NFL front last week.  Big Plays went 1-1, as Buffalo staged a 2nd half comeback to cover, while Arizona melted down late and failed to cover by 1 measly point.  Other Plays went 1-1, as the Giants covered on Thursday and Oakland managed to turn a tie game at halftime…

College Football Week 7 Picks

Finally, a winning weekend in college football!  We went 8-2 overall, including 4-1 on “Big Plays”, 1-1 on “Other Plays”, and 3-0 on “MP Leans”.  Our big plays are now well in the positive.  If only we could somehow just forget about the other plays…  We also did very well with the line moves, beating…

NFL Week 6 Picks

Our picks last week went 2-4 overall.  Both of our “Big Plays” lost, while we split the “Other Plays”.  Despite the outcomes being unprofitable, I think we “won” with the process. The short-run driver of results in this business is luck; in the long-run, skill shines through.  In the short-run, a better predictor of future…

NFL Week 5 Picks

Last week, we went 3-3 on our plays (all “Other Plays”).  This has been a year with two big outliers.  The Jaguars offense has been historically inept.  The numbers are staggeringly awful.  Jacksonville’s play success rate is only 24.8% (league average is 44.6%) and they average only 3.3 adj yards per play.   The Jaguars don’t just…