Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

College Football Bowl Game Picks

After a week off of college football picks, it’s time to go bowling! Yes, that is yours truly in the picture. And before you criticize my two-finger technique, I did bowl a 277 that way. I know many “experts” buy into theories of motivation, letdowns, etc. when handicapping bowl games. While I’m not going to…

NFL Week 15 Picks

Had a little bump in the road last week, going 2-3 overall (1-0 on Big Plays, 1-3 on Other Plays). This week we have a very small slate of games we like. As has been the case in previous years, the differences between how we value teams and how the market values them gets smaller later in…

NFL Week 14 Picks

We had another profitable week in the NFL, with our two official plays both winning and our leans going 2-2. For the season, we’re now at 61.54% for our “official” plays and 60.23% if you include our Break-Even or Better (which we expect to win at a 52.5%-54% clip). Lines are widely available as of 12:50pm EST…

College Football Week 15 Picks

Last Saturday was the most exciting day of college football I can remember! There were two critical coaching decisions that have been analyzed and overanalyzed in the aftermath, and before I get to this week’s picks, I want to offer my two cents. I think Brady Hoke had the right idea when he decided to attempt…

NFL Week 13 Picks

Coming off of an excellent weekend! Went up to New Haven for the Yale/Harvard game, and then watched the Massey-Peabody picks nearly go undefeated. (Naturally, it was my Redskins that kept us from perfection.) Overall, M-P picks went 7-1 on the weekend, including 3-0 on our Big Plays. The market generally agreed with our numbers, as…

College Football Week 14 Picks

We rebounded very nicely from a disappointing Week 12, going 8-4 overall and 4-0 on Big Plays. That runs our record on Big Plays to 21-11! As usual, I like to monitor the line moves and if the moves agree with our picks. The lines moved very strongly in our favor on our biggest plays, averaging…

NFL Week 12 Picks

We had a decent performance last week, going 0-1 on Big Plays, 2-0 on Other Plays, and 1-1-1 on Break-Even or Better selections. There was a lot of line movement on games we picked: Green Bay, our big selection, moved from +6 all the way to +3, Arizona moved from -6.5 to -9.5, and Carolina moved from -2.5…

College Football Week 13 Picks

Disappointing performance last weekend, going 0-1 on Big Plays, 2-5 on Other Plays, and 2-3 on MP Leans. Line moves closed a total of 5.5 points closer to our line in the 13 games, not as strong as normal, but still solid. Picks are based on Massey-Peabody ratings, and do not include injuries, weather, or matchup factors. Lines…

College Football Week 12 Picks

We continued our mid-season surge last weekend, sweeping both our Big Plays (2-0) and Other Plays (2-0). We didn’t just win, we WON. Stanford blew out Oregon as a 10-point dog, New Mexico entertained thoughts of an upset as a 24.5-point dog before finally succumbing to Boston College by 14, and Syracuse won by 17 as a…