Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

NFL Week 10 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

CFB Week 11 Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

2017 NFL Week 10 Picks

Big Plays (9-11-1 YTD, 124.5-102.5-7 lifetime) Cleveland +12 at Detroit [MP Line: CLE +9.2] Houston +11.5 at LA Rams [MP Line: HOU +8.6] New York Giants -2.5/-3 at San Francisco [MP Line: NYG -5.7] (uses Beathard at QB) Other Plays (11.5-4-0.5 YTD, 162.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Green Bay +5.5/+6 at Chicago [MP Line: GB +3.3] New Orleans -2.5/-3…

NFL Week 9 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

CFB Week 10 Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

2017 NFL Week 9 Picks

If I’m to believe Google Analytics, our NFL picks get more than 15 times the page views of anything else we post, so I may try to cheat the system and post anything I find interesting here. If you have not checked out the Bet The Process podcast (also available on Google Play), which I co-host with Jeff Ma, please give…

NFL Week 8 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.   # season tm…

CFB Week 9 Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

2017 NFL Week 8 Picks

Big Plays (6-7-1 YTD) Baltimore -3 vs. Miami [MP Line: BAL -7.0] New England -7/-7.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NE -13.0] Washington +2 vs. Dallas [MP Line: WAS -2.3] Other Plays (9-4 YTD) Philadelphia -12.5 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: PHI -15.5] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (9.5-3-0.5 YTD) Carolina +2 at Tampa Bay…

NFL Week 7 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…