Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) Cincinnati -3 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: CIN -6.5] Other Plays (7-2 YTD) New York Giants -3/-3.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NYG -6.6] Carolina +2.5 at Detroit [MP Line: CAR -1.3] Green Bay +2.5 at Dallas [MP Line: GB -1.3] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (4.5-2-0.5 YTD) Indianapolis -1.5 vs. San…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm…
Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) none this week Other Plays (5-1 YTD) Arizona -6.5/-7 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: ARI -10.2] NY Jets +3/+3.5 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: NYJ +0.5] Philadelphia +1.5 at LA Chargers [MP Line: PHI -2.1] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (1.5-2-0.5 YTD) Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago [MP Line: GB -9.4] LA…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
Big Plays (2-2-1 YTD) New York Jets +6 vs. Miami [MP Line: NYJ +1.6] Arizona +3 vs. Dallas [MP Line: ARI -4.5] Other Plays (2-1 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CHI +5.5] Cincinnati +8.5/+9 at Green Bay [MP Line: CIN +6.2] Washington +3 vs. Oakland [MP Line: WAS +0.0] Break-Even or Better (unofficial…
This week’s game grades are a little spicier. The margin of victory for our top three this week — Denver, New England, and Tennessee — closely mirrored their expected score differential. But there were a lot of games this past weekend where the final score and the fundamentals told a different story. Below are the expected vs.…
Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
Here are our Week 2 picks against the spread. For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be available at a minimum of two of the four books. If there’s no consensus, or a heavily juiced line, we’ll post the pick in the…