Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

NFL Week 3 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

CFB Week 4 Game Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

2017 NFL Week 3 Picks

Big Plays (2-2-1 YTD) New York Jets +6 vs. Miami [MP Line: NYJ +1.6] Arizona +3 vs. Dallas [MP Line: ARI -4.5] Other Plays (2-1 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CHI +5.5] Cincinnati +8.5/+9 at Green Bay [MP Line: CIN +6.2] Washington +3 vs. Oakland [MP Line: WAS +0.0] Break-Even or Better (unofficial…

NFL Week 2 Game Grades

This week’s game grades are a little spicier. The margin of victory for our top three this week — Denver, New England, and Tennessee — closely mirrored their expected score differential. But there were a lot of games this past weekend where the final score and the fundamentals told a different story. Below are the expected vs.…

CFB Week 3 Game Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

2017 NFL Week 2 Picks

Here are our Week 2 picks against the spread. For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be available at a minimum of two of the four books. If there’s no consensus, or a heavily juiced line, we’ll post the pick in the…

NFL Week 1 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

CFB Week 2 Game Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…

2017 NFL Week 1 Picks

A summary of our historical performance can be found here. If you want to verify it yourself, you can go through all our previous blog entries (which I have used to compile this). For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be…