These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that…
A summary of our historical performance can be found here. If you want to verify it yourself, you can go through all our previous blog entries (which I have used to compile this). For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be…
After another offseason that has seemed to fly by, college football has already begun, and the NFL kicks off tonight. We’ve been a little haphazard in getting everything up on the site for the season (I just started a yearlong trip abroad), but our numbers should be as solid as ever. Every offseason, we look into improving our numbers,…
Here’s the first iteration of our weekly grades. These represent how well a team played, weighting metrics by their predictive value and controlling for expected quality of opponent. # season week tm opp tm score opp score pctile rating score diff 1 2017 1 LSU Brigham Young 27 0 0.995 40.7 2 2017 1…
Apologies for not updating this sooner…been a crazy 10 days out in Vegas doing prop betting. Believe it or not, we do have a play–well, it’s officially going to have to be a lean, but if you can price shop, it’s good enough to be an “Other Play”. We make the Patriots a 4.7-point favorite (and…
We didn’t have a single official pick last week–we did have a lean on Seattle, which won–but unfortunately, for the seconds straight week, we don’t see much value on sides. In fact, three of the four games are within a tenth of a point of the market. For those of you who really want SOMETHING to…
As usual, this year’s Week 17 games provide a set of unique circumstances in many cases. There are four teams who have their seed completely locked up and have very little incentive to play starters–New York, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Houston. Point spreads for those games are pretty disconnected from the actual strength of the teams, so…
Another tough week last week. Philadelphia was our lone big play to cover, while San Fran lost and San Diego either pushed or lost depending on whether you got +2.5 or +3. The Jets, after dominating the first quarter, got steamrolled by Miami, and Cincinnati blew a 14-point lead and couldn’t cover the +3 or…
Just in time for the office bowl pool, Cade is/has/will be posting the complete list of our college bowl picks, in order of confidence. I figured I’d get in on the action and post our best picks against the point spread. We posted college football picks every week back in 2013 and 2014, but after noticing how much…