Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

2016 NFL Week 1 Picks

Welcome back! It’s been a long offseason, but during that time Cade and I have made some improvements on our model(s). We’ve also examined its historical performance more closely and critically, and found that our predictive value, relative to the market, increases as the season progresses. To folks who know the basics of our methodology, this shouldn’t…

Super Bowl Prediction

Unfortunately, we think the market got it right this time. We make the Panthers a 5.6-point favorite (with a 67.8% chance of winning), and our total for the game is 44.3. No value at the current consensus line of 5.5/44.   For the season, our picks ed up: Big Plays: 24-14-1 Other Plays: 17-19 Leans: 9-10-2 So…

NFL Divisional Picks

Sorry for the late posting. Been a busy week…   Big Plays (22-14-1 YTD) Pittsburgh +7/+7.5 at Denver [MP Line: PIT +3.8] Other Plays (17-18 YTD) Kansas City +5.5 at New England [MP Line: KC +2.9] MP Leans (9-10-2 YTD) none this week Lines for the rest of the games Arizona -8.3 vs. Green Bay…

NFL Wild Card Picks

We finish off the regular season with a very solid Week 17, going 3-2 on our Big Plays and 1-0 on our Other Play. At the end of the regular season, our official plays are 38-32-1 (54.3%), putting us in profitable territory for the sixth straight year. On to the wild card picks…   Big Plays (22-14-1 YTD)…

NFL Week 17 Picks

Week 17 always feels a little different. It’s not unusual for a team to have nothing to play for in the latter weeks of the season–except of course for their jobs, which is a pretty powerful incentive. But that’s been the case for some teams for awhile now. What’s difficult is figuring out the motivations of teams…

NFL Week 16 Picks

Got back on the winning track last week, winning our Big Play and both Other Plays. The Dolphins had other ideas with our lean. Here’s what we got for this week:   Big Plays (17-11-1 YTD) Baltimore +10 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: BAL +5.9] Cincinnati +3.5 at Denver [MP Line: CIN +0.1] Miami -1.5 vs. Indianapolis [MP…

NFL Week 15 Picks

In a bit of a reversal of fortunes, our Week 14 Big Plays did poorly (1-3) while our Other Plays went 2-0. Big Plays (16-11-1 YTD) Cincinnati -4.5 at San Francisco [MP Line: CIN -9.7] Other Plays (12-17 YTD) New England -14 vs. Tennessee [MP Line: NE -17.3] Detroit +3 at New Orleans [MP Line: DET +0.6] MP…

NFL Week 14 Picks

Bounced back a little in Week 13, with our Big Plays going 2-1 while our Other Plays went 1-1. Our lone lean lost.   Big Plays (15-8-1 YTD) Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CIN -6.1] New England -3/-3.5 at Houston [MP Line: NE -8.3] Baltimore +10 vs. Seattle [MP Line: BAL +6.0*] *assumes Schaub starting Miami +1 vs. New…