NFL Week 6 Picks

Been a very interesting (and unusual) start to the season for our picks. After winning both our Big Plays last week (TEN, CHI) and losing both Other Plays (BAL, NO) we find ourselves 9-1 on the Big Plays, but 2-9 on Other Plays. We expect Big Plays to do better, since we have more confidence in…

NFL Week 5 Picks

About to board a flight, so no time for a writeup this week. Lines are consensus as of noon Vegas time on Thursday.   Big Plays (7-1 YTD) Tennessee +2.5 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: TEN -3.0] Chicago +9 at Kansas City [MP Line: CHI +6.3]   Other Plays (2-7 YTD) Baltimore -6.5 vs. Cleveland [MP…

NFL Week 4 Picks

Our Week 3 performance left a lot to be desired, despite winning our only Big Play (on Tennessee). All three of our Other Plays lost, and none was even close. And our leans went 1-2. So not a fabulous weekend for MP picks. This week, we show even less value than last. Lines for this…

NFL Week 3 Picks

My central thesis of last week’s picks was overwhelmingly vindicated, as our Big Plays went 3-1, with wins by Denver (+3), New England (-1), and Dallas (+5) offset only by Detroit’s (+2.5) loss. That said, it would be disingenuous not to mention that the Broncos were outplayed, and were extremely lucky to get the win. But our strongest play of the weekend,…

NFL Week 2 Picks

Week 1 saw our picks go 2-2, with both Big Plays winning and both Other Plays losing. Opening week in the NFL is always interesting. Every year there are a few teams that surprise everyone with how well or poorly play. And every year the market loves to overreact to this one-week sample size, creating narratives to…

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL season is finally here and, despite some misgivings, we’re going to continue to post weekly NFL picks. As you may recall from previous seasons, we do not factor in offseason roster transactions in our ratings; in fact, individual players (and coaches) are not considered at all with the exception of quarterback. Still, we’ve done…

NFL Super Bowl Pick

Midweek Rufus woke-up from his props-induced coma and drug himself out for two computer-free days of golf/rehab. He’s back in full obsession mode now, but in-between he called just long enough to drop a few numbers and wave toward the blog before running off to new hunting grounds. So, fresh from the front lines of…

NFL Conference Championship Picks

Divisional Recap We did not have an official play last week, but did have Carolina (+10.5) at a Break-Even or Better selection. After playing the first three quarters close, the Panthers fell by 14.   Divisional Closing Line Value *Carolina: picked +10.5, closed +13.5, CLV -3.0   Conference Championship Picks Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays…

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Wild Card Recap: We didn’t have any official plays on last weekend’s action. However, we did have three Break-Even or Better selections, which fared well, going 2-1. Baltimore (+3) won outright in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (-3/-3.5) blew out Cincinnati, and Dallas (-6.5) came from behind in the second half to win, but failed to cover.   Wild…

Correction on NFL Records

It was brought to my attention that a loss from Week 9 was not included in our W/L record for Big Plays. I went through week-by-week to make sure everything was correct in our records and found that, indeed, a Week 9 loss was omitted from our record in the subsequent weeks. After adding that loss,…