NFL Week 1 Picks

Before we get into the week’s picks, let’s quickly review our performance last season. Last season was an historically good year for Massey-Peabody NFL picks. Our records, by pick type: Big Plays: 17-10-1 Other Plays: 34-20 Break-Even or Better (leans): 19-17-3 Our official plays (leans not included) finished 51-30-1 (62.96%!). Including the leans, that still is 70-47-4 (59.82%).…

Welcome to the 2014 Football Season!

After an eventful “offseason” (I’m not sure either Cade or I understand the concept of downtime), football is finally back! In the last six months, Cade got himself hitched to a wonderful woman, while I took advantage of my lack of commitment and backpacked for 10 weeks in southeast Asia, all while keeping up with my work. This will…

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

That was a pretty freaking awesome weekend of football! As a Chiefs moneyline backer, Saturday afternoon was a little less pleasant, but still, there was not a single boring game the entire weekend. The good news: Massey-Peabody leaned to the correct side in each game (well, there was no correct side in GB/SF as it…

NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Picks

Happy New Year from Cade and me! It’s been an excellent year personally and professionally for both of us. We made improvements to our NFL model and had our best regular season yet, and we recovered from a dreadful start to finish above .500 in our first year of college football picks (with an excellent record…

NFL Week 17 Picks

Merry Christmas everybody! Heading into the final week of the season, our picks appear poised for another profitable year. Last week was another strong week, with our Big Plays going 1-1, our Other Plays 1-0, and Break-Even or Better selections 2-1. In terms of line move value, both Big Plays did not move. Our Falcons pick moved 2.5 points…

NFL Week 16 Picks

Won our two “official” plays last week, lost both of our BEOB picks (one unfortunately pushed at the closing line). Sorry for the delay in getting the ratings updated this week. I run the code and send the ratings to Cade, who normally puts together the graphics, but Cade is traveling to Argentina this week and…

NFL Week 15 Picks

Had a little bump in the road last week, going 2-3 overall (1-0 on Big Plays, 1-3 on Other Plays). This week we have a very small slate of games we like. As has been the case in previous years, the differences between how we value teams and how the market values them gets smaller later in…

NFL Week 14 Picks

We had another profitable week in the NFL, with our two official plays both winning and our leans going 2-2. For the season, we’re now at 61.54% for our “official” plays and 60.23% if you include our Break-Even or Better (which we expect to win at a 52.5%-54% clip). Lines are widely available as of 12:50pm EST…

NFL Week 13 Picks

Coming off of an excellent weekend! Went up to New Haven for the Yale/Harvard game, and then watched the Massey-Peabody picks nearly go undefeated. (Naturally, it was my Redskins that kept us from perfection.) Overall, M-P picks went 7-1 on the weekend, including 3-0 on our Big Plays. The market generally agreed with our numbers, as…