NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

Week-10 Picks

5-0 last week! Our first undefeated weekend. Been waiting for that one. They’re tough to get, of course, but there’s so much chance involved that if you pick long enough the odds favor eventually getting one. We enjoyed it. Pushes our YTD up to 25-22-3 (53.2%). We were 4-1 in the WSJ (dropping a winning…

Week-9 Picks

1-2 last week, missing getting back into the black by a Dez Bryant finger or two. We’re now 20-22-3 YTD (47.6%). We were 1-1 in the WSJ, making us 9-12-1 YTD there (42.8%). As always, our lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines are from…

Week-6 Picks

We had our first losing weekend last week, going 2-3. Overall for the season we are 17-12-1 (58.6%). In the Wall Street Journal we actually went 3-1, pushing our yearly record to 7-4 (63.6%). As detailed in a blog entry last week, we’re tracking those picks separately since they are based on late-week lines. For…

Week-5 Picks

Last week was the best of the season, hitting 5 of 7 picks, including all 3 of our Big Plays. For the season we are up to 15-9-1 (62.5%). And, nice bit, we’ve been on the positive side of the ledger every week. Smaller slate this week so we’re being a little aggressive with our…

Week-4 Picks

Last week we were 3-2-1, pushing the NYJ-Miami game when it went to OT. The crazy Baltimore-New England game got us into winning territory at the end of the weekend. We’re now 10-7-1 (58.8%) for the year. Large slate this week, with picks on 7 of the 15 games (Pittsburgh and Indy have byes). “Big…

Week-3 Picks

Last week we were 4-3, splitting our Big Plays and hitting 3 of the 5 Other Plays. With two weeks of games in now we have an initial look at opponent strength, so the model’s at least covering all the bases. Remember we do not consider injuries unless we explicitly say so (and that’s quite rare).…

Welcome to the 2012 season

Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The Giants & Cowboys kick things off in just a few hours.  We’re back and striving to give you the cleanest look possible at the true ability of NFL teams.  As always, we do that by considering context, factoring out chance, and most important, weighing statistics for what they…