NFL Week 5 Picks

Last week, we went 3-3 on our plays (all “Other Plays”).  This has been a year with two big outliers.  The Jaguars offense has been historically inept.  The numbers are staggeringly awful.  Jacksonville’s play success rate is only 24.8% (league average is 44.6%) and they average only 3.3 adj yards per play.   The Jaguars don’t just…

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week saw our NFL plays go 2-1-1, with Baltimore and Indy both covering comfortable (and winning outright), but San Diego could not seal the deal in the last minute and let Tennessee get the backdoor push.  It’s very early in the year to say this, but our ratings certainly show that there is a…

NFL Week 3 Picks

Nice to be back in the win column!  Excellent week last week, going 1-0 on Big Plays and 6-1 on Other Plays.  There’s obviously some positive variance in there, but I’ll take it; we had more than our share of negative variance the week before.  Once again on primarily underdogs this week.  In my opinion,…

NFL Week 2 Picks

Every year, there are a few unexpected performances in the first week of the season, and this year was no different.  Who expected the Eagles to walk all over the Redskins?  Or the lowly Raiders to nearly beat the Colts?  While there is plenty of signal in one week of data, its value is still…

NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…

Week-10 Picks

5-0 last week! Our first undefeated weekend. Been waiting for that one. They’re tough to get, of course, but there’s so much chance involved that if you pick long enough the odds favor eventually getting one. We enjoyed it. Pushes our YTD up to 25-22-3 (53.2%). We were 4-1 in the WSJ (dropping a winning…

Week-9 Picks

1-2 last week, missing getting back into the black by a Dez Bryant finger or two. We’re now 20-22-3 YTD (47.6%). We were 1-1 in the WSJ, making us 9-12-1 YTD there (42.8%). As always, our lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines are from…

Week-6 Picks

We had our first losing weekend last week, going 2-3. Overall for the season we are 17-12-1 (58.6%). In the Wall Street Journal we actually went 3-1, pushing our yearly record to 7-4 (63.6%). As detailed in a blog entry last week, we’re tracking those picks separately since they are based on late-week lines. For…

Week-5 Picks

Last week was the best of the season, hitting 5 of 7 picks, including all 3 of our Big Plays. For the season we are up to 15-9-1 (62.5%). And, nice bit, we’ve been on the positive side of the ledger every week. Smaller slate this week so we’re being a little aggressive with our…