Ah, NFL season is finally here. Here at Massey-Peabody, we do what we always do and wait until July to implement all the great ideas we came up with to improve the model the previous season. While there haven’t been major changes to our regular model, we’ve been working on a way to quantify the…
Big Plays (23-29-3 YTD) none this week Other Plays (24.5-7-0.5 YTD) New England -7/-7.5 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: NE -10.5] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (16.5-12-1.5 YTD) Philadelphia +2.5/+3 vs. Minnesota [MP Line: PHI +0.9]
Apologies for the late post. We have one pick this week, a Big Play on Philadelphia +2.5 (we make the line PHI -3). Our lines on the other games: New England -13.5 Pittsburgh -7.3 Minnesota -6.2
Big Plays (21-29-3 YTD) Tennessee +8.5 at Kansas City [MP Line: TEN +5.0] Other Plays (23.5-7-0.5 YTD) Buffalo +8.5/+9 at Jacksonville [MP Line: BUF +7.4] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (15.5-12-1.5 YTD) Carolina +6.5 at New Orleans [MP Line: CAR +4.8] In the one remaining game, we make the LA Rams a 6.4-point favorite hosting…
It’s the final week of the regular season, and an unusually large number of playoff-bound teams have little to no incentive to win. Two teams (Kansas City and the LA Rams) have announced that they will be resting their key starters, which makes a lot of sense given their position and that they won’t have…
Big Plays (17-23-2 YTD, 132.5-114.5-8 lifetime) Green Bay +9 vs. Minnesota [MP Line: GB +5.9] Cincinnati +3.5/+4 vs. Detroit [MP Line: CIN -2.1] NY Jets +7 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NYJ +4.5] Tennessee +6.5/+7 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: TEN +3.5] New England -11 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: NE -15.5] NY Giants +4 at…
Big Plays (15-21 YTD, 130.5-114.5-7 lifetime) Kansas City +1 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: KC -3.4] Houston +11 at Jacksonville [MP Line: HOU +7.1] Baltimore -7 at Cleveland [MP Line: BAL -11.3] Tennessee +2 at San Francisco [MP Line: TEN -6.6] Other Plays (20.5-5-0.5 YTD, 171.5-129.5-7 lifetime) Cincinnati +10.5 at Minnesota [MP Line: CIN +8.5]…
Big Plays (15-17-1 YTD, 130.5-109.5-7 lifetime) Cincinnati -6 vs. Chicago [MP Line: CIN -10.0] Houston -2.5/-3 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: HOU -7.3] Washington +6 at LA Chargers [MP Line: WAS +2.7] NY Giants +4 vs. Dallas [MP Line: NYG +0.8] Other Plays (18.5-4-0.5 YTD, 169.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Seattle +2.5 at Jacksonville [MP Line: SEA -0.7]…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
Big Plays (12-17-1 YTD, 127.5-108.5-7 lifetime) Arizona +7 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: ARI +3.7] NY Giants +9 at Oakland [MP Line: NYG +2.5] Seattle +6 vs. Philadelphia [MP Line: SEA -0.6] Cincinnati +5/+5.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CIN +1.6] Other Plays (15.5-4-0.5 YTD, 166.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Dallas +1.5 vs. Washington [MP Line: DAL -1.8] Baltimore…