Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Thankful for being able to do something I love (sports analytics) for a living, for more than seven years of professional collaboration with Cade, and for you — our audience — who think we have something worthwhile to contribute. Big Plays (11-15-1 YTD, 126.5-106.5-7 lifetime) Dallas +2 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line:…
Big Plays (9-14-1 YTD, 124.5-105.5-7 lifetime) New York Giants +10/+10.5 vs. Kansas City [MP Line: NYG +3.7] Houston -1 vs. Arizona [MP Line: HOU -3.5] Dallas +4 vs. Philadelphia [MP Line: DAL +1.7] Other Plays (13.5-4-0.5 YTD, 164.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Minnesota -2 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: MIN -3.9] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (11.5-4-0.5 YTD, 67.5-74.5-8 lifetime) Chicago…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
Big Plays (9-11-1 YTD, 124.5-102.5-7 lifetime) Cleveland +12 at Detroit [MP Line: CLE +9.2] Houston +11.5 at LA Rams [MP Line: HOU +8.6] New York Giants -2.5/-3 at San Francisco [MP Line: NYG -5.7] (uses Beathard at QB) Other Plays (11.5-4-0.5 YTD, 162.5-128.5-7 lifetime) Green Bay +5.5/+6 at Chicago [MP Line: GB +3.3] New Orleans -2.5/-3…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
If I’m to believe Google Analytics, our NFL picks get more than 15 times the page views of anything else we post, so I may try to cheat the system and post anything I find interesting here. If you have not checked out the Bet The Process podcast (also available on Google Play), which I co-host with Jeff Ma, please give…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm…
Big Plays (6-7-1 YTD) Baltimore -3 vs. Miami [MP Line: BAL -7.0] New England -7/-7.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NE -13.0] Washington +2 vs. Dallas [MP Line: WAS -2.3] Other Plays (9-4 YTD) Philadelphia -12.5 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: PHI -15.5] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (9.5-3-0.5 YTD) Carolina +2 at Tampa Bay…
These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…
Big Plays (6-4-1 YTD) Green Bay +5.5 vs. New Orleans [MP Line: GB +2.6] Arizona +3/+3.5 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: LAR -0.5] (in London) New York Giants +5.5 vs. Seattle [MP Line: SEA -0.8] Other Plays (9-3 YTD) Baltimore +5.5/+6 at Minnesota [MP Line: BAL +3.8] (using Keenum at QB) Break-Even or Better (unofficial…