2017 NFL Week 9 Picks

If I’m to believe Google Analytics, our NFL picks get more than 15 times the page views of anything else we post, so I may try to cheat the system and post anything I find interesting here. If you have not checked out the Bet The Process podcast (also available on Google Play), which I co-host with Jeff Ma, please give…

NFL Week 8 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.   # season tm…

2017 NFL Week 8 Picks

Big Plays (6-7-1 YTD) Baltimore -3 vs. Miami [MP Line: BAL -7.0] New England -7/-7.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NE -13.0] Washington +2 vs. Dallas [MP Line: WAS -2.3] Other Plays (9-4 YTD) Philadelphia -12.5 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: PHI -15.5] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (9.5-3-0.5 YTD) Carolina +2 at Tampa Bay…

NFL Week 7 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

2017 NFL Week 7 Picks

Big Plays (6-4-1 YTD) Green Bay +5.5 vs. New Orleans [MP Line: GB +2.6] Arizona +3/+3.5 vs. LA Rams [MP Line: LAR -0.5] (in London) New York Giants +5.5 vs. Seattle [MP Line: SEA -0.8] Other Plays (9-3 YTD) Baltimore +5.5/+6 at Minnesota [MP Line: BAL +3.8] (using Keenum at QB) Break-Even or Better (unofficial…

NFL Week 6 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

2017 NFL Week 6 Picks

Big Plays (4-3-1) Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay [MP Line: MIN -1.3 w/ Bradford, +1.3 w/ Keenum] Washington -10 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: WAS -14.4] NY Giants +11.5 at Denver [MP Line: NYG +4.3] Other Plays (9-3 YTD) none this week Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (6.5-3-0.5 YTD) Philadelphia +3.5 at Carolina [MP Line:…

NFL Week 5 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.   # season tm…

2017 NFL Week 5 Picks

Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) Cincinnati -3 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: CIN -6.5] Other Plays (7-2 YTD) New York Giants -3/-3.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NYG -6.6] Carolina +2.5 at Detroit [MP Line: CAR -1.3] Green Bay +2.5 at Dallas [MP Line: GB -1.3] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (4.5-2-0.5 YTD) Indianapolis -1.5 vs. San…

NFL Week 4 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.   # season tm…