2017 NFL Week 4 Picks

Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) none this week Other Plays (5-1 YTD) Arizona -6.5/-7 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: ARI -10.2] NY Jets +3/+3.5 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: NYJ +0.5] Philadelphia +1.5 at LA Chargers [MP Line: PHI -2.1] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (1.5-2-0.5 YTD) Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago [MP Line: GB -9.4] LA…

NFL Week 3 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

2017 NFL Week 3 Picks

Big Plays (2-2-1 YTD) New York Jets +6 vs. Miami [MP Line: NYJ +1.6] Arizona +3 vs. Dallas [MP Line: ARI -4.5] Other Plays (2-1 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CHI +5.5] Cincinnati +8.5/+9 at Green Bay [MP Line: CIN +6.2] Washington +3 vs. Oakland [MP Line: WAS +0.0] Break-Even or Better (unofficial…

NFL Week 2 Game Grades

This week’s game grades are a little spicier. The margin of victory for our top three this week — Denver, New England, and Tennessee — closely mirrored their expected score differential. But there were a lot of games this past weekend where the final score and the fundamentals told a different story. Below are the expected vs.…

2017 NFL Week 2 Picks

Here are our Week 2 picks against the spread. For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be available at a minimum of two of the four books. If there’s no consensus, or a heavily juiced line, we’ll post the pick in the…

NFL Week 1 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

2017 NFL Week 1 Picks

A summary of our historical performance can be found here. If you want to verify it yourself, you can go through all our previous blog entries (which I have used to compile this). For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be…

2017 “Big Game” Pick

Apologies for not updating this sooner…been a crazy 10 days out in Vegas doing prop betting. Believe it or not, we do have a play–well, it’s officially going to have to be a lean, but if you can price shop, it’s good enough to be an “Other Play”. We make the Patriots a 4.7-point favorite (and…