2017 NFL Week 6 Picks

Big Plays (4-3-1) Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay [MP Line: MIN -1.3 w/ Bradford, +1.3 w/ Keenum] Washington -10 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: WAS -14.4] NY Giants +11.5 at Denver [MP Line: NYG +4.3] Other Plays (9-3 YTD) none this week Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (6.5-3-0.5 YTD) Philadelphia +3.5 at Carolina [MP Line:…

NFL Week 5 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.   # season tm…

2017 NFL Week 5 Picks

Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) Cincinnati -3 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: CIN -6.5] Other Plays (7-2 YTD) New York Giants -3/-3.5 vs. LA Chargers [MP Line: NYG -6.6] Carolina +2.5 at Detroit [MP Line: CAR -1.3] Green Bay +2.5 at Dallas [MP Line: GB -1.3] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (4.5-2-0.5 YTD) Indianapolis -1.5 vs. San…

NFL Week 4 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field.   # season tm…

2017 NFL Week 4 Picks

Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) none this week Other Plays (5-1 YTD) Arizona -6.5/-7 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: ARI -10.2] NY Jets +3/+3.5 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: NYJ +0.5] Philadelphia +1.5 at LA Chargers [MP Line: PHI -2.1] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (1.5-2-0.5 YTD) Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago [MP Line: GB -9.4] LA…

NFL Week 3 Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…

2017 NFL Week 3 Picks

Big Plays (2-2-1 YTD) New York Jets +6 vs. Miami [MP Line: NYJ +1.6] Arizona +3 vs. Dallas [MP Line: ARI -4.5] Other Plays (2-1 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: CHI +5.5] Cincinnati +8.5/+9 at Green Bay [MP Line: CIN +6.2] Washington +3 vs. Oakland [MP Line: WAS +0.0] Break-Even or Better (unofficial…

NFL Week 2 Game Grades

This week’s game grades are a little spicier. The margin of victory for our top three this week — Denver, New England, and Tennessee — closely mirrored their expected score differential. But there were a lot of games this past weekend where the final score and the fundamentals told a different story. Below are the expected vs.…

2017 NFL Week 2 Picks

Here are our Week 2 picks against the spread. For lines, I’ve decided to use two offshore books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker) and two Las Vegas books (Westgate, William Hill). Pick lines must be available at a minimum of two of the four books. If there’s no consensus, or a heavily juiced line, we’ll post the pick in the…

NFL Week 1 Game Grades

These individual game grades reflect a team’s performance — controlling for home field and strength of opponent — through the lens of the Massey-Peabody ratings. Percentile rating is normalized relative to historical games, and expected score differential is a team’s expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. # season tm week…