2016 NFL Week 10 Picks

Not much to recap from last week (except my trip to Ecuador, which I won’t bore you with here). Our one and only play of the week (San Francisco) was blown out by New Orleans. I wrote a piece for ESPN this week with betting-related takeaways from the first half of the season. It’s been a…

2016 NFL Week 9 Picks

A solid week for our official plays last week, with both of our Big Plays winning and our Other Plays going 1-1. Unfortunately, all three of our leans lost. Didn’t get to watch any of the games, as I’m on a mindfulness retreat (with 25 of my new best friends!) in Ecuador, but I’m still running the…

2016 NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week was basically a wash, with our Big Plays going 1-1-1 (2-1 if you were able to get the Saints at +6.5 instead of +6), Other Plays 1-1, and both leans won. Here’s what we have for this week:   Big Plays: (2-4-1 YTD) Tennessee -3 +100 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: TEN -5.6] Green Bay +3 at Atlanta [MP…

2016 NFL Week 7 Picks

We won our only Big Play of the week last week, with San Diego winning outright against Denver. We split our Other Plays, as Miami won outright as a touchdown dog, the Jets were blown out in the desert, and Indianapolis blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime, giving us a push. And unfortunately, both of…

2016 NFL Week 6 Picks

Big Plays (1-3 YTD) none this weekend Other Plays (3-5-1 YTD) Miami +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh [MP Line: MIA +5.4] Indianapolis +3 at Houston [MP Line: IND +0.6] New York Jets +7.5 at Arizona [MP Line: NYJ +5.6] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (3-4 YTD) Seattle -6.5 vs. Atlanta [MP Line: SEA -8.8] Green Bay -4…

2016 Massey-Peabody Week 6 TNF Pick

Wanted to post this pick early, since we actually have a play on the Thursday night game. I’ll get around to posting last week’s college football and NFL grades shortly, but I’m in Vegas moving condos this week, so things are a little hectic for me. Will have the rest of the game picks posted this…

2016 NFL Week 5 Picks

We continued our losing ways last week, going 0-2 on our official plays, with neither coming close to covering. We drop to 2-8 on official plays on the young season (and 2-4 on leans). Still, even if your baseline expectation is 55%, you’re going to have some stretches like this one. If there was a guaranteed profit every week, it…

NFL Week 4 Grades

season tm week score diff off def MP pctile rating exp score diff 2016 PIT 4 29 1.70 1.26 2.96 0.991 15.47 2016 DEN 4 20 0.71 1.51 2.22 0.961 11.59 2016 SEA 4 10 1.26 0.78 2.04 0.947 10.62 2016 NO 4 1 0.99 0.69 1.67 0.907 8.72 2016 DAL 4 7 1.62 -0.36…

2016 NFL Week 4 Picks

Recapping another losing week isn’t fun. So I’ll keep it succinct. Not the start to the season we were hoping for, but in the words of Nick Saban (…and Sam Hinkie) we will “trust the process” as we always have. Not unexpected at all to have runs like we have the first three weeks. Chicago did not…

NFL Week 3 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 3. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…