2017 NFL Divisional Picks

We didn’t have a single official pick last week–we did have a lean on Seattle, which won–but unfortunately, for the seconds straight week, we don’t see much value on sides. In fact, three of the four games are within a tenth of a point of the market. For those of you who really want SOMETHING to…

Playoff %s, Wildcard Round

Our projections, as we begin the playoffs: Team Div Alive Conf Alive Conf Champ SB Win NE 100.0% 87.3% 61.5% 36.6% DAL 100.0% 70.0% 41.7% 19.1% ATL 100.0% 63.3% 29.6% 13.4% KC 100.0% 61.0% 20.8% 9.9% PIT 80.1% 35.1% 12.2% 6.6% SEA 77.2% 28.9% 13.4% 6.5% GB 68.1% 24.7% 10.6% 4.8% NYG 31.9% 8.9% 3.4%…

2016 NFL Week 17

As usual, this year’s Week 17 games provide a set of unique circumstances in many cases. There are four teams who have their seed completely locked up and have very little incentive to play starters–New York, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Houston. Point spreads for those games are pretty disconnected from the actual strength of the teams, so…

2016 NFL Week 16 Picks

Another tough week last week. Philadelphia was our lone big play to cover, while San Fran lost and San Diego either pushed or lost depending on whether you got +2.5 or +3. The Jets, after dominating the first quarter, got steamrolled by Miami, and Cincinnati blew a 14-point lead and couldn’t cover the +3 or…

2016 NFL Week 15 Picks

I am in a rush so no write-up this week. But for those of you losing faith, remember that we’re still a documented 55.04% since 2011, even including this year’s horror. Here are the picks. Big Plays (7-15-2 YTD) Philadelphia +6 at Baltimore [MP Line: PHI +2.3] San Diego +2.5/+3 vs. Oakland [MP Line: SD…

2016 NFL Week 14 Picks

My treatise on randomness last week might be even more fitting now, after we got smacked around pretty good–1-4 on official plays, 2-1 on leans. Sometimes, that’s how it goes. Our college football numbers had a very solid year; our NFL numbers have not (so far). We continue to trust the process. Here are the Week…

2016 NFL Week 13 Picks

We enter the stretch run of the season coming off another losing week, unfortunately. Losing isn’t fun, but lady luck dictates it will happen sometimes, and those are the times when people might be tempted to question the process. Do I believe that our Massey-Peabody model is perfect and there are no possible improvements? Of course not. There…

2016 NFL Week 12 Picks

Posting picks early this week, due to Thanksgiving. Went 1-0 on our official plays last week, 0-2 on our leans. Huge volume of picks this week; would have been even better value had I posted yesterday! Lines are QB-specific, with Tolzien starting for Indy, Fitzpatrick for the Jets, and Barkley for Chicago.   Big Plays (4-6-1 YTD)…

2016 NFL Week 11 Picks

The challenge of posting picks at one time in the week is that lines move around, and sometimes value will pop up on Sunday morning. Last week’s results weren’t good if you just look at the picks we posted (1-2 on official plays, 2-0 on leans), but that doesn’t tell the entire story. Carolina looked to…

2016 NFL Week 10 Picks

Not much to recap from last week (except my trip to Ecuador, which I won’t bore you with here). Our one and only play of the week (San Francisco) was blown out by New Orleans. I wrote a piece for ESPN this week with betting-related takeaways from the first half of the season. It’s been a…