NFL Week 4 Grades

season tm week score diff off def MP pctile rating exp score diff 2016 PIT 4 29 1.70 1.26 2.96 0.991 15.47 2016 DEN 4 20 0.71 1.51 2.22 0.961 11.59 2016 SEA 4 10 1.26 0.78 2.04 0.947 10.62 2016 NO 4 1 0.99 0.69 1.67 0.907 8.72 2016 DAL 4 7 1.62 -0.36…

2016 NFL Week 4 Picks

Recapping another losing week isn’t fun. So I’ll keep it succinct. Not the start to the season we were hoping for, but in the words of Nick Saban (…and Sam Hinkie) we will “trust the process” as we always have. Not unexpected at all to have runs like we have the first three weeks. Chicago did not…

NFL Week 3 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 3. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…

2016 NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s been a slow start thus far this year, with our official plays going 1-1, while both of our leans lost. That puts us at 1-3 on the year, but it is early days still. Here are this week’s picks: Big Plays (0-2 YTD) Chicago +7/+7.5 at Dallas [M-P Line: CHI +3.1] Other Plays (1-1…

NFL Week 2 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 2. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. pctile rating is a rating of the team’s performance,…

NFL Week 1 Grades

Here are our “grades” for NFL Week 1. We control for game location and opponent quality, and discount garbage time situations. exp score diff is how we’d expect the team to do against an average team on a neutral field based on the way they actually played in the game, but using only predictive metrics. So Pittsburgh was fundamentally 10.7 points better than an…

2016 NFL Week 2 Picks

The season got off to a sluggish start, with both our official plays losing, though our one lean was victorious. As I mentioned last week, we’re weighting the market number more heavily early in the season, so the threshold for something to quality as a pick is a little higher than in the past. I…

2016 NFL Week 1 Picks

Welcome back! It’s been a long offseason, but during that time Cade and I have made some improvements on our model(s). We’ve also examined its historical performance more closely and critically, and found that our predictive value, relative to the market, increases as the season progresses. To folks who know the basics of our methodology, this shouldn’t…

Super Bowl Prediction

Unfortunately, we think the market got it right this time. We make the Panthers a 5.6-point favorite (with a 67.8% chance of winning), and our total for the game is 44.3. No value at the current consensus line of 5.5/44.   For the season, our picks ed up: Big Plays: 24-14-1 Other Plays: 17-19 Leans: 9-10-2 So…