Week 11 Recap:
Coming off of a solid Week 11. We split our Big Plays: Florida State (-19.5) started slow (again) and failed to cover, while Texas (+3.5) was dominant in a 17-point win over favorite West Virginia. Our Other Plays did much better, going 3-1. Indiana (+6.5) turned the ball over deep in their own territory in the last few minutes, but managed to hold Penn State to a field goal and cover by a half-point. UCLA (-4.5) built a big lead and cruised to a 14-point win at Washington. Our other winner was Louisiana-Lafayette (-16), a 44-16 victor over an awful New Mexico State squad. Our lone Other Play loss was UNLV (+5.5), who we backed unsuccessfully for the second straight week. Our leans last week were a perfect 3-0, with Arizona (-16.5), Fresno State (-2), and Louisiana Tech (-3.5) all covering.
Week 11 Closing Line Value:
- Florida State: picked -19.5, closed -21, CLV +1.5
- Texas: picked +3.5, closed +3, CLV +0.5
- Indiana: picked +6.5, closed +6, CLV +0.5
- UCLA: picked -4.5, closed -5.5, CLV +1.0
- Louisiana-Lafayette: picked -16, closed -16.75, CLV +0.75
- UNLV: picked +5.5, closed +4.5, CLV +1.0
- *Arizona: picked -16.5, closed -18.5, CLV +2.0
- *Fresno State: picked -2, closed +1, CLV -3.0
- *Louisiana Tech: picked -3.5, closed -5.25, CLV +1.75
Week 12 Picks:
Pick criteria is the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Leans (53.5-54%). Note that these estimates are conservative because lines tend to move our way. MP Lines are calculated by taking the difference in MP power ratings, giving a bonus for teams coming off a bye, adding home field advantage, adjusting for QB injury, and further adjusting for pace of play. Lines are the Vegas Insider Consensus Lines current as of 11:20am PST.
Big Plays (13-10-1 YTD)
- LSU +2 at Arkansas [MP Line: LSU -5.0]
- Hawaii +10.5 at San Jose State [MP Line: Hawaii +4.8]
Other Plays (24-15 YTD)
- San Diego State +14 at Boise State [MP Line: SDSU +9.1]
- Central Michigan -17 vs. Miami (OH) [MP Line: CM -22.5]
- Tulane +10.5 at Memphis [MP Line: Tulane +6.2]
- Alabama -8.5 vs. Mississippi State [MP Line: Bama -16.0]
- UCF -20 vs. Tulsa (PENDING)
- Ball State +4 at Massachusetts (LOSS)
MP Leans (14-11-1 YTD)
- Army +9.5 at Western Kentucky [MP Line: Army +6.0]
- Georgia Tech +3 vs. Clemson [MP Line: GT -0.8]
- Kansas +28.5 at TCU [MP Line: Kansas +23.2]
- Stanford -7.5 vs. Utah [MP Line: Stanford -14.9]
- Rice +21.5 at Marshall [MP Line: Rice +16.5]
- Troy +6.5 at Idaho [MP Line: Troy +2.5]
- Maryland +12.5 vs. Michigan State [MP Line: Maryland +8.2]