Quick look at our projections going into Week 4. You can read a fuller account in the Washington Post, where we’re doing a weekly summary on Mondays. You can also find our playoff bracket and a prediction engine at the Wall Street Journal.
So far the playoff field looks pretty deep. We have 10 teams with at least a 14% chance of making it, and another 8 with at least a 5% chance (see table). That looks like a reasonable-sized group for this time of year, and they (mostly) pass the eye test.
At the top we have Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State. As we discussed pre-season, as strong as those four look the chance we end up with that particular bracket is actually quite small. In our sim it’s coming up ~3% of the time. Even more likely, if you’ll allow us the flexibility, is Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson and (USC or Washington), which comes up ~4%. As we get deeper into the season that kind of play-in logic will become more and more important.
Team | MP | MP Rank | E(Ws) | E(Ls) | P(L<2) | Conf Champ | Playoff |
Alabama | 28.61 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 75% | 55% | 58% |
Oklahoma | 26.12 | 4 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 71% | 58% | 53% |
Clemson | 27.23 | 2 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 70% | 49% | 50% |
Ohio State | 26.46 | 3 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 50% | 55% | 38% |
USC | 21.05 | 6 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 59% | 47% | 36% |
Washington | 18.84 | 8 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 45% | 28% | 24% |
Wisconsin | 18.02 | 11 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Florida State | 24.66 | 5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 19% | 23% | 16% |
Penn State | 19.50 | 7 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 34% | 11% | 15% |
Oklahoma State | 18.74 | 9 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 30% | 19% | 14% |
Virginia Tech | 16.41 | 13 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 24% | 11% | 9% |
Miami (FL) | 14.30 | 20 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 27% | 9% | 8% |
TCU | 16.29 | 14 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 17% | 12% | 8% |
Michigan | 15.22 | 18 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 6% |
Georgia | 15.66 | 15 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 18% | 12% | 6% |
Mississippi State | 15.38 | 16 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 11% | 6% | 5% |
Oregon | 13.18 | 22 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 13% | 7% | 5% |
Auburn | 18.63 | 10 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 6% | 12% | 5% |