A quick errata. We won’t adjust our record for this, but wanted to note it. We blanked on homefield for the Pats-Rams game last week. Rams were the official home team, so they (rotely) got the 2.44-point homfield advantage in our predictions for the week. On a neutral field we had the Pats by 9.6. The line opened at 6.5, and closed at 7.5 – we should have opened and closed with a pick on the Pats (edge>2 points). They covered easily so we lost a win there.
Author: Cade Masseyhttps://opimweb.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1757/
Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.