Been a very interesting (and unusual) start to the season for our picks. After winning both our Big Plays last week (TEN, CHI) and losing both Other Plays (BAL, NO) we find ourselves 9-1 on the Big Plays, but 2-9 on Other Plays. We expect Big Plays to do better, since we have more confidence in them, but our expectation is by few percent, not over 70%! Once again, I’m posting picks from an airport today. And once again, a light week in terms of value. Lines are consensus as of 10:30am Vegas time on Thursday.
Big Plays (9-1 YTD)
- New Orleans +3.5 vs. Atlanta [MP Line: NO +0.3]
Other Plays (2-9 YTD)
- Indianapolis +10/+9.5 vs. New England [MP Line: IND +7.7]
MP Leans (3-3-1 YTD)
- Detroit -3 vs. Chicago [MP Line: DET -5.1]
- New York Jets -6 vs. Washington [MP Line: NYJ -8.3]
Our Lines (means) for the rest of the slate:
- Denver -4.5 at Cleveland
- Cincinnati -1.7 at Buffalo
- Minnesota -2.7 vs. Kansas City
- Jacksonville -1.5 vs. Houston
- Arizona -4.1 at Pittsburgh
- Tennessee -1.6 vs. Miami
- Seattle -5.9 vs. Carolina
- Green Bay -9.6 vs. San Diego
- Baltimore -3.6 at San Francisco
- Philadelphia -2.8 vs. New York Giants
Note that the Indianapolis play is an Other Play at a line of +10 and a lean at a line of +9.5. For our purposes, since we are not adjusting for juice, we will count it as half a play at +10, and half a play at +9.5, and it will be graded as an Other Play.