Past Performance – NFL 2010 and 2011
The hallmark of a good system is that it does better when more confident. I.e., the more sure you are, the more often you should be right. Far too few people track this. Confidence here is the difference between the M-P implied pointspread and the actual betting line (this difference is also known as the “edge”). We report YTD results for various levels of this difference. The hope is that performance will be positive (>50%) everywhere, and that performance will be better when the edge is larger.