Cade Massey is a Professor of the Practice at the Wharton School of Business. His research is on judgment under uncertainty, including overconfidence, optimism and under- and over-reaction. He is the co-author of “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft", co-host of "Wharton Moneyball" on SiriusXM 111, and co-director of Wharton People Analytics.
Rufus sends his greetings from Havana. He also sends our take on the weekend via text message (apparently not all communists countries are good with computers)… Finished off a dismal NFL regular season with our best week of the season (by a mile), going 5-1 on our official plays, and losing our one lean…
Our projections, as we begin the playoffs: Team Div Alive Conf Alive Conf Champ SB Win NE 100.0% 87.3% 61.5% 36.6% DAL 100.0% 70.0% 41.7% 19.1% ATL 100.0% 63.3% 29.6% 13.4% KC 100.0% 61.0% 20.8% 9.9% PIT 80.1% 35.1% 12.2% 6.6% SEA 77.2% 28.9% 13.4% 6.5% GB 68.1% 24.7% 10.6% 4.8% NYG 31.9% 8.9% 3.4%…
This is our favorite contest of the year. So many narratives! We ignore them all, staying only with a few formulas written in August. We see your coaching changes, draft entries, and don’t-want-to-be-theres. They’re all compelling stories, it’s just that it’s hard to sort the ones that matter from those that don’t. We’ve learned to…
A quick look at our projections for the rest of the season. These blend our usual power rankings and season simulation with a model of the playoff committee’s selection process (while recognizing lots of uncertainty about that process – see last week’s post for more detail). Tight week so little commentary here. It’s all Bama…
We’ve extended our sim to include the conference championships, committee selections, and playoff outcomes. This is a blend of two kinds of uncertainty – our usual power-rank based methodology and speculation about playoff committee politics. We model both and try to be transparent about which inputs are objective and which are subjective. In this summary…
Our latest end-of-season projections (focusing on our “In The Conversation” metric). The aim is to project the teams we’ll be discussing as we head into the conference championships. Predictive analysts are like the grizzled old scouts in cowboy movies. Spend days on their own, working through signs, keeping track of threats too far away for the…
A quick look at our latest end-of-season projections (focusing on our “In The Conversation” metric). The aim, as always, is to project the teams we’ll be discussing as we head into the conference championships. Remember when the playoff committee released their initial rankings in 2014 – the first ever – leading with Mississippi State as…
A quick look at our latest end-of-season projections (focusing on our “In The Conversation” metric). The aim, as always, is to project the teams we’ll be discussing as we head into the conference championships. The field held steady this week, with the same 11 teams making up the potential playoff pool. Alabama, Michigan and Clemson are…
A quick look at our latest end-of-season projections (focusing on our “In The Conversation” metric). The aim, as always, is to project the teams we’ll be discussing as we head into the conference championships. The field shortened again this week, now down to only 11 teams with at least a 10% of being in the…
A quick look at our latest end-of-season projections (focusing on our “In The Conversation” metric). Our list of teams with >10% of being in the playoff conversation at the end of the regular season is down to 12 – one shorter than last week. As long as the top teams keep winning there will be…