The Massey-Peabody bracket attempts to reconcile analytics and politics. We begin with the traditional Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, a predictive analytics model built to identify the “best” teams. We then impose a few political constraints in order to also consider which teams are “most deserving”: 1) No influence from pre-season expectations (hence we use Massey-Peabody’s “Hybrid”…
We figured we should offer a bracket for this year’s college playoff. Since the playoff committee is announcing their first rankings next week. And, you know, since nobody else seems to have an opinion on the matter. The challenge is that we want a bracket informed by analytics – predictive analytics – but one that…
Where’d all the square money go?! We are yet again right on the market line – we have the Niners by 3.31, while Vegas has them at 3.5. Not a lot of edge to work with there. Looks like we’ll end the season at 54.3% here and 55.9% in the Wall Street Journal. We have…
We hit our Seattle pick last week, moving our YTD record to 51-43-2 (54.3%). Our WSJ picks got bumped (by HGH!) so we are still 33-26-1 (55.9%) there. Full predictions this weekend: SF 24, ATL 22 NE 30, BAL 22 But those mean another weekend without picks, as the market largely agrees. We like SF…
No picks last week so our YTD records are still 50-43-2 (53.8%) and 33-26-1 (55.9%) in the WSJ. This week we have a pretty big edge on the Seahawks at Atlanta. One thing we do not consider is the value of the first-round bye. Actually, we consider it but don’t find much evidence of an…
A quick look at teams’ strength-of-schedule this season. Below we’ve simply averaged the end-of-season MP rating for each team’s 16 opponents. Playoff teams are highlighted in red. A few observations: Most playoff teams come from the easier half of the distribution. While tempting to believe that is because of the easier schedule, these scheduling differences can’t explain…
Last week we were 2-0, including one “Big Play”, making our overall YTD 50-43-2 (53.8%). We were also 2-0 in the WSJ, pushing the YTD to 33-26-1 (55.9%). No action this week! We are in close agreement with Vegas on these 4 games. Our biggest edge, though still not what we’d consider a pick at…
Last week we were 3-3, including 2-1 on “Big Plays”, making our overall YTD 48-43-2 (52.7%). We were 4-2 in the WSJ, pushing the YTD to 31-26-1 (54.4%). (Week 15, previously unreported, we were 3-2). Strange week, this one. For 11 of the 13 games on the board, our line is within 1 of the…
Last week we were 2-2, making our YTD 39-38-2 (50.6%). We were also 2-2 in the WSJ we were 3-2, pushing the YTD to 24-22-1 (52.2%). More familiar faces here. As a buddy put it this morning, “Jets! Cowboys! Bills! And the only reason you’re not shorting the Giants is because you guys hate the…
Last week we were 4-3, including 2-1 on Big Plays. YTD we are 37-36-2 (50.7%). In the WSJ we were 3-2, pushing the YTD to 22-20-1 (52.4%). So surprising that we’re short the Giants. And, for that matter, long the Bills and Jets, two of our other most familiar positions. Hoping the edge on that…