Had a little bump in the road last week, going 2-3 overall (1-0 on Big Plays, 1-3 on Other Plays). This week we have a very small slate of games we like. As has been the case in previous years, the differences between how we value teams and how the market values them gets smaller later in…
We had another profitable week in the NFL, with our two official plays both winning and our leans going 2-2. For the season, we’re now at 61.54% for our “official” plays and 60.23% if you include our Break-Even or Better (which we expect to win at a 52.5%-54% clip). Lines are widely available as of 12:50pm EST…
Last Saturday was the most exciting day of college football I can remember! There were two critical coaching decisions that have been analyzed and overanalyzed in the aftermath, and before I get to this week’s picks, I want to offer my two cents. I think Brady Hoke had the right idea when he decided to attempt…
Coming off of an excellent weekend! Went up to New Haven for the Yale/Harvard game, and then watched the Massey-Peabody picks nearly go undefeated. (Naturally, it was my Redskins that kept us from perfection.) Overall, M-P picks went 7-1 on the weekend, including 3-0 on our Big Plays. The market generally agreed with our numbers, as…
We rebounded very nicely from a disappointing Week 12, going 8-4 overall and 4-0 on Big Plays. That runs our record on Big Plays to 21-11! As usual, I like to monitor the line moves and if the moves agree with our picks. The lines moved very strongly in our favor on our biggest plays, averaging…
We had a decent performance last week, going 0-1 on Big Plays, 2-0 on Other Plays, and 1-1-1 on Break-Even or Better selections. There was a lot of line movement on games we picked: Green Bay, our big selection, moved from +6 all the way to +3, Arizona moved from -6.5 to -9.5, and Carolina moved from -2.5…
Disappointing performance last weekend, going 0-1 on Big Plays, 2-5 on Other Plays, and 2-3 on MP Leans. Line moves closed a total of 5.5 points closer to our line in the 13 games, not as strong as normal, but still solid. Picks are based on Massey-Peabody ratings, and do not include injuries, weather, or matchup factors. Lines…
Last week was a bit of a bump in the road for our NFL picks. Our Big Plays went 2-2. Carolina won in San Francisco as a 6-point dog, and Arizona covered our published line of -2.5 by half a point (though this pushed for anyone who played it at -3). Dallas and Green Bay did…
We continued our mid-season surge last weekend, sweeping both our Big Plays (2-0) and Other Plays (2-0). We didn’t just win, we WON. Stanford blew out Oregon as a 10-point dog, New Mexico entertained thoughts of an upset as a 24.5-point dog before finally succumbing to Boston College by 14, and Syracuse won by 17 as a…
Another solid week for our NFL picks, and would’ve been even better if not for my brain fart with Jacksonville playing in London (and not at home). Still, Big Plays went 2-1, Other Plays went 2-1, and our one Break-Even or Better pick won. For the year, we are now 27-18-1 (60%) on our picks, and 32-22-1…