Another week gone by, and another week I get to try to explain the piss poor performance of our college football picks. We don’t have the 3 seasons of documented profitable performance in college that we do with our NFL plays. This is our first season, and this is not the way we hoped to…
Nice to be back in the win column! Excellent week last week, going 1-0 on Big Plays and 6-1 on Other Plays. There’s obviously some positive variance in there, but I’ll take it; we had more than our share of negative variance the week before. Once again on primarily underdogs this week. In my opinion,…
The complete ratings can be found here. Another subpar weekend on the college front. 0-2 on Big Plays, 2-2 on Other Plays, but leans did go 2-0. Despite the unprofitable record thus far, our plays have been getting good closing line value. The average play we’ve released has closed 0.7 points toward our side (meaning…
Every year, there are a few unexpected performances in the first week of the season, and this year was no different. Who expected the Eagles to walk all over the Redskins? Or the lowly Raiders to nearly beat the Colts? While there is plenty of signal in one week of data, its value is still…
Our updated CFB ratings can be found (and downloaded!) here. Coming off of a BRUTAL week, where we won just one game. I know it must not inspire much confidence, but all I can do is laugh about it and move on. I remain confident in the process. Weeks such as this are (probabilistically) almost certain…
After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1. Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent. The other…
Well, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked. 3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”. Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here. Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher. Statistically, Georgia had the better…
Without further ado, here is the inaugural version of our weekly college football picks against the spread. Lines taken from Bookmaker as of 10:30am PDT on Wednesday. Some big differences between our numbers and the market. We think a lot of games won’t be quite as lopsided as the market. This is fairly common at…
Apologies for not having the ratings in a more user-friendly form. Wanted to get them posted before the season kicked off. The college football section of our website is still under construction.The ratings can be viewed in spreadsheet form here: 1 Alabama 28.26 2 Georgia 18.07 3 Florida 17.3 4 Texas A&M 16.77 5 LSU…
For the first year, Massey-Peabody Analytics will now provide weekly college football ratings and picks. This post will explain the basics of the rating system. Right now, all our college football content will be posted on the blog, but we should have a new section on the site in a week or two that will…