Now that the injury situation is clear we can make a final call on tonight’s game. Not that it’s easy to do. We make adjustments for QBs but there is considerable uncertainty, especially with QBs starting for their teams for the first time. Fortunately we have the Niners ranked much higher than the Bears, in…
3-5 last week. We hit some gloriously high-profile upsets (Saints, Bengals and Texans), but missed the others. In the WSJ we were 3-4. YTD we are 28-27-3 (50.9%) here and 16-17-1 (48.5%) in the WSJ. This week we are grappling with the rash of QB injuries. We detail this in separate blog posts, but our…
We’ll have our rankings up shortly but wanted to first post a short note about the QB injuries this week. We’re adjusting the rankings to reflect that Vick and Roethlisberger will be out and that Smith and Cutler are questionable. Given the uncertainty, the Niners’ and Bears’ rankings are the average of their rankings with…
5-0 last week! Our first undefeated weekend. Been waiting for that one. They’re tough to get, of course, but there’s so much chance involved that if you pick long enough the odds favor eventually getting one. We enjoyed it. Pushes our YTD up to 25-22-3 (53.2%). We were 4-1 in the WSJ (dropping a winning…
Beginning this week we are adding a couple of adjustments to our game predictions. Digging through historical performance we find that teams perform better in the week after a Thursday night game, and after a bye. In both cases, the effect is about 2 points. That is, teams coming off bye weeks or Thursday games…
1-2 last week, missing getting back into the black by a Dez Bryant finger or two. We’re now 20-22-3 YTD (47.6%). We were 1-1 in the WSJ, making us 9-12-1 YTD there (42.8%). As always, our lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines are from…
A quick errata. We won’t adjust our record for this, but wanted to note it. We blanked on homefield for the Pats-Rams game last week. Rams were the official home team, so they (rotely) got the 2.44-point homfield advantage in our predictions for the week. On a neutral field we had the Pats by 9.6.…
Another off week and now we’re officially below .500 for the first time in our 2.5-year existence! Small samples, baby. Chagrined but not worried. We believe we’ve been on the right side of the market and it’s only a matter of time until a bit of the luck goes our way. 0-4-1 last week, including…
We had a second consecutive losing week last weekend, going 1-1-1 on Big Plays, and 1-3 on Other Plays. Our overall record for the season now stands at 19-16-2 (54.3%). Our picks published in the WSJ, which may differ from the website picks due to line moves, went 1-4-1 and are 8-8-1 on the season.…
We had our first losing weekend last week, going 2-3. Overall for the season we are 17-12-1 (58.6%). In the Wall Street Journal we actually went 3-1, pushing our yearly record to 7-4 (63.6%). As detailed in a blog entry last week, we’re tracking those picks separately since they are based on late-week lines. For…