NFL Week 10 Picks

Caught a bit of a break with Indy’s epic comeback, enabling us to salvage a split (1-1) on our¬†Other Plays. But we were pretty unlucky in the Buffalo/KC game. Despite out-gaining KC 470-210 (6.1-3.9 in yards/play), Buffalo managed to lose by 10. Having Jeff Tuel starting instead of Thad Lewis certainly didn’t help our cause…

NFL Week 9 Picks

Another solid week for our NFL picks, and would’ve been even better if not for my brain fart with Jacksonville playing in London (and not at home). Still, Big Plays went 2-1, Other Plays went 2-1, and our one Break-Even or Better pick won. For the year, we are now 27-18-1 (60%) on our picks, and 32-22-1…

NFL Week 8 Picks

A very big weekend for Massey-Peabody NFL picks in Week 7.  Our lone Big Play, won handily.  Our Other Plays swept, going 5-0, with both the Jets and Colts winning outright as underdogs, and Houston losing by one point.  Our new category, Break-Even or Better–picks we expect will (barely) cover the vig, but are not strong enough for us…

NFL Week 7 Picks

Pretty blah week on the NFL front last week.  Big Plays went 1-1, as Buffalo staged a 2nd half comeback to cover, while Arizona melted down late and failed to cover by 1 measly point.  Other Plays went 1-1, as the Giants covered on Thursday and Oakland managed to turn a tie game at halftime…

NFL Week 6 Picks

Our picks last week went 2-4 overall.  Both of our “Big Plays” lost, while we split the “Other Plays”.  Despite the outcomes being unprofitable, I think we “won” with the process. The short-run driver of results in this business is luck; in the long-run, skill shines through.  In the short-run, a better predictor of future…

NFL Week 5 Picks

Last week, we went 3-3 on our plays (all “Other Plays”).  This has been a year with two big outliers.  The Jaguars offense has been historically inept.  The numbers are staggeringly awful.  Jacksonville’s play success rate is only 24.8% (league average is 44.6%) and they average only 3.3 adj yards per play.   The Jaguars don’t just…

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week saw our NFL plays go 2-1-1, with Baltimore and Indy both covering comfortable (and winning outright), but San Diego could not seal the deal in the last minute and let Tennessee get the backdoor push.  It’s very early in the year to say this, but our ratings certainly show that there is a…

NFL Week 3 Picks

Nice to be back in the win column!  Excellent week last week, going 1-0 on Big Plays and 6-1 on Other Plays.  There’s obviously some positive variance in there, but I’ll take it; we had more than our share of negative variance the week before.  Once again on primarily underdogs this week.  In my opinion,…

NFL Week 2 Picks

Every year, there are a few unexpected performances in the first week of the season, and this year was no different.  Who expected the Eagles to walk all over the Redskins?  Or the lowly Raiders to nearly beat the Colts?  While there is plenty of signal in one week of data, its value is still…

NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason of tirelessly working on improving our already-successful model, we’re ready to unveil our picks for Week 1.  Improvements include adjusting for nonlinearities in yards gained per play, doing a better job of distinguishing luck from skill in turnovers, and using a more sophisticated (and Bayesian!) method of adjusting for opponent.  The other…