Last week was the best of the season, hitting 5 of 7 picks, including all 3 of our Big Plays. For the season we are up to 15-9-1 (62.5%). And, nice bit, we’ve been on the positive side of the ledger every week. Smaller slate this week so we’re being a little aggressive with our…
Last week we were 3-2-1, pushing the NYJ-Miami game when it went to OT. The crazy Baltimore-New England game got us into winning territory at the end of the weekend. We’re now 10-7-1 (58.8%) for the year. Large slate this week, with picks on 7 of the 15 games (Pittsburgh and Indy have byes). “Big…
Last week we were 4-3, splitting our Big Plays and hitting 3 of the 5 Other Plays. With two weeks of games in now we have an initial look at opponent strength, so the model’s at least covering all the bases. Remember we do not consider injuries unless we explicitly say so (and that’s quite rare).…
Opened the season with a 3-2 weekend, all Big Plays. Happy to be on the positive side. Would settle for 3-2 all year long. We’ve continued to do some research on our priors coming into the season. Will have more on this later, but we’ve tweaked them to account for changes in QBs. All according…
Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The Giants & Cowboys kick things off in just a few hours. We’re back and striving to give you the cleanest look possible at the true ability of NFL teams. As always, we do that by considering context, factoring out chance, and most important, weighing statistics for what they…
The hallmark of a good system is that it does better when more confident. I.e., the more sure you are, the more often you should be right. Far too few people track this. Confidence here is the difference between the M-P implied pointspread and the actual betting line (this difference is also known as the…