We stopped posting CFB picks — as well as our full set of CFB ratings — years ago, but we’ve continued posting our bowl game predictions every year. This post has our picks against the spread. We’ll be separately posting our confidence pool recommendations. Last year, we just had four picks, which went 2-2. Lifetime, our CFB picks are 114-92-2 (55.3%).
Historically, our lines for bowl games have been very predictive relative to the market. In fact, the optimal weight over the past 11 seasons would be MP 65%, Pinnacle closing line 21%. Keep in mind that this is still a very small sample; bowl games account for fewer than 5% of games. We don’t expect to have that much more predictive power than we do in regular season games. Similarly, we don’t expect the market to remain that biased towards larger dogs. So we’re (by and large) sticking with regression coefficients for the full sample of games.
Here are this season’s bowl picks. MP lines quoted are not regressed to the market. Lines are consensus as of 4:45pm EST on 12/12.
- Arizona State +4.5 vs. Fresno State (MP: Fresno -1.2)
- Middle Tennessee +6.5 vs. Appalachian State (MP: App -1.5)
- Western Michigan +12 vs. BYU (MP: BYU -8.1)
- Louisiana Tech +1 at Hawaii (MP: La Tech -7.0)
- Auburn -3.5 vs. Purdue (MP: Auburn -8.0)
- Virginia Tech +5 vs. Cincinnati (MP: Cincy -2.1)
- Pittsburgh +6.5 vs. Stanford (MP: Stanford -3.2)
- NC State +6 vs. Texas A&M (MP: TxA&M -1.7)