Well, last week didn’t go as well as we’d have liked. 3-3 on our “Big Plays” and 3-4 on “Other Plays”.
Our updated ratings after week 1 can be found here. Interesting to see that despite Clemson beating Georgia in last weekend’s marquee matchup, we still rate Georgia significantly higher. Statistically, Georgia had the better game in all facets of our model except for scoring efficiency, but lost due to less “fundamental” things–a botched FG, lots of penalties, and losing the turnover battle.
One thing about our college football picks is that they grow in confidence on more evenly matched games. By this, I mean that if our ratings imply a 5-point edge on a game with a spread of +35, the edge is not as large as a 5-point edge with a spread of +1. Why is this? Well, our system uses game weights, meaning we de-weight what happens at the end of a lopsided game, since two equally strong teams could take different approaches in that situation–one continuing to try to score, the other running out the clock. So our ratings are at their best when they are comparing more evenly-matched teams, since they are intended to predict performance when it matters. For this reason, the threshold for a pick is higher for a more lopsided game.
Here are this week’s picks. Line taken from Pinnacle Sports at 2pm EDT on Wednesday.
Big Plays (3-3 YTD)
- South Alabama +6.5 @ Tulane
- USC -14.5 vs. Washington State
Other Plays (3-4 YTD)
- North Texas +5.5 @ Ohio
- Florida International +24 vs. Central Florida
- Cincinnati -7.5 @ Illinois
- San Diego State +27.5 @ Ohio State
- Memphis +6 vs. Duke
- Buffalo +27.5 @ Baylor