3-5 last week. We hit some gloriously high-profile upsets (Saints, Bengals and Texans), but missed the others. In the WSJ we were 3-4. YTD we are 28-27-3 (50.9%) here and 16-17-1 (48.5%) in the WSJ.
This week we are grappling with the rash of QB injuries. We detail this in separate blog posts, but our rankings DO consider who the starting QB is. A refinement we made this season, this is the only way we incorporate injury news. In short, our offensive stats are a blend of the team’s historical performance and the QB’s historical performance (or, in the case of rookies, that of players like him). This means that teams who lost starting QBs (Eagles and Steelers) drop in our rankings. Teams with “questionable” QBs (Bears and Niners), also drop, but only to an average between the team ranking with and without the QB.
As always, our lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider non-QB injuries, weather, matchups, etc. As detailed last week, we adjust for teams coming off bye weeks (+1.5) and Thursday games (+0.75). Lines are from Bookmaker (via sbrodds.com), as of Wednesday, 11/14, 6:00pm EDT. “Big Plays” are games with at least 4-point edges, while “Other Plays” are those with 2.3- to 4-point edges.
Big Plays (13-11-1 YTD)
None this week.
Other Plays (15-16-1 YTD)
NE (-9) vs IND [MP= -12.6]
WAS (-3.5) vs PHI [MP= -7.0]
NYJ (+3) at STL [MP= -.5]
CAR (+1.5) vs TB [MP= -1.3]
HOU (-15) vs JAC [MP= -17.7]
CIN (-3) at KC [MP= -5.7]
Note that the CHI@SF game is off the board right now, due to the QB injuries to both teams. Currently, with each QB having a 50% of playing, we have SF by 8.7.