A painful 0-4 last week. Apparently we are the high-variance outfit this season. YTD we are 33-33-2 (50%), and 19-18-1 (51.4%) in the WSJ (they published no picks last week due to the holiday).
For QBs we have Roethlisberger and Vick out, and the Niners playing Kaepernick.
Quick note on line moves, which we accidentally got a small sample of this week. We readied our picks last night but then had some website issues that delayed our posting them. Just updated the betting lines, about 24 hours later, before posting this. Four lines had moved – two a full point toward us (Seattle and Dallas), one a ½ point toward us (Houston) and one a ½ point away from us (Buffalo). Only one of those (Seattle/Chicago) cost us a pick. Small sample, but as we’ve said over the years, market moves are one of the best ex ante measures of a betting system.
As always, our lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider non-QB injuries, weather, matchups, etc. As detailed earlier in the season, we adjust for teams coming off Thursday games (+0.75, and we’re past the bye weeks for the year). Lines are from Bookmaker (viasbrodds.com) as of Wednesday, 11/28, 3:30pm EST. “Big Plays” are games with at least 4-point edges, while “Other Plays” are those with 2.5- to 4-point edges.
Big Plays (13-13-1 YTD)
HOU (-6) at TEN [MP= -11.5]
NYJ (-4.5) vs ARI [MP= -9.6]
BUF (-5.5) vs JAC [MP= -10.2]
Other Plays (20-20-1 YTD)
WAS (+2.5) vs NYG [MP= -1.4]
DET (-5) vs IND [MP= -8.5]
SD (+1.5) vs CIN [MP= -1.3]
DEN (-7) vs TB [MP= -9.6]
The PIT@BAL game and CLE@OAK games are off the board right now due to injury uncertainty.