We had a second consecutive losing week last weekend, going 1-1-1 on Big Plays, and 1-3 on Other Plays. Our overall record for the season now stands at 19-16-2 (54.3%). Our picks published in the WSJ, which may differ from the website picks due to line moves, went 1-4-1 and are 8-8-1 on the season.
The biggest theme so far this season has been parity. Underdogs have posted an astounding 56-32 record this season against the consensus line. This is the first year our methodology has incorporated a prior, which means our rankings have been more spread out early in the season than in previous years, where our rankings were based exclusively on current season performance. Without priors, just about all of our early-season picks were on dogs, so we probably would be doing way better!
That said, it’s a small sample size, and we’ve been extremely pleased with the value our picks have provided so far relative to the closing line. This past week, San Francisco was a 4.5-point favorite when we blogged the picks but by Sunday, they were a 7-point favorite; Atlanta moved from -8.5 to -9.5 at Bookmaker (and -10 at many books); Miami moved from -3 (-125) to -5.5; Detroit moved from +5.5 to +3.5. So despite a losing week in which we were on the wrong side of a few blowouts, the strong market move is encouraging, as–with a limited sample size–it’s generally considered a stronger indicator of a model’s value than actual results.
On to the picks. Massey-Peabody lines are calculated directly from our power rankings – we don’t consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines are from Bookmaker, current as of Tuesday 10/16 at 4:30 PDT.
Big Plays (9-6-1 YTD)
BUF (-3 -125*) vs TEN [MP= -7.9]
CIN (+2.5) vs PIT [MP= -1.7]
Other Plays (10-10-1 YTD)
CLE (+3 +105) vs IND [MP= +0.2]
SF (-7) vs SEA [MP= -9.4]
TB (+3 -125) vs NO [MP= +0.8]
*For transparency, I’m noting when the moneyline differs from the traditional -110. -125 means a winning bet wins $100, while a losing bet loses $125; +105 means a winning bet wins $105 while a losing bet loses $100.