A good sim should occasionally surprise you. Especially with something as complex and uncertain as a college football playoff season, it’s more or less impossible to see how all the parts fit together ahead of time without one. Alabama and Clemson are pretty straightforward, sure, but what about the other 128 teams? And in what…
Big Plays (3-3-1 YTD) none this week Other Plays (5-1 YTD) Arizona -6.5/-7 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: ARI -10.2] NY Jets +3/+3.5 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: NYJ +0.5] Philadelphia +1.5 at LA Chargers [MP Line: PHI -2.1] Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (1.5-2-0.5 YTD) Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago [MP Line: GB -9.4] LA…
Our current probabilities: Team Conf Alive Conf Champ SB Win NE 87.8% 63.0% 38.0% DAL 64.4% 38.6% 17.1% ATL 63.1% 29.7% 12.8% PIT 45.8% 15.6% 8.5% KC 54.2% 17.2% 8.1% SEA 36.9% 17.0% 7.7% GB 35.6% 14.7% 6.6% HOU 12.2% 4.3% 1.2%
Rufus sends his greetings from Havana. He also sends our take on the weekend via text message (apparently not all communists countries are good with computers)… Finished off a dismal NFL regular season with our best week of the season (by a mile), going 5-1 on our official plays, and losing our one lean…
A quick look at our latest end-of-season projections (focusing on our “In The Conversation” metric). The aim, as always, is to project the teams we’ll be discussing as we head into the conference championships. The field held steady this week, with the same 11 teams making up the potential playoff pool. Alabama, Michigan and Clemson are…
Lots of questions the last few days so want to give you an update. Looks like we’re getting out of the pick-posting business for college games. Just decided midweek after line moves complicated our lives. There were hard line moves in our direction on FIU, Central Michigan, Idaho and Alabama after we finally posted our…
Week 14 Recap: Our week got off to a bad start when Chicago (+4) was steamrolled by Dallas on Thursday. I don’t know what’s going on with Chicago, but they should not be playing this badly. We rebounded in the early time slot on Sunday, with Carolina (+10) dominating New Orleans, winning 41-10. Our lone Big Play, Kansas…
Here are our lines for the Wednesday and Thursday games: Wednesday Buffalo -9.1 vs. Kent State Toledo -12.5 vs. Bowling Green Thursday Kansas State -1.0 at West Virginia Duke -8.5 vs. North Carolina Arkansas State -6.5 at Texas State NFL: Kansas City -10.0 at Oakland Picks: No “official” picks for any of the games, but…
Last week was a bit of a bump in the road for our NFL picks. Our Big Plays went 2-2. Carolina won in San Francisco as a 6-point dog, and Arizona covered our published line of -2.5 by half a point (though this pushed for anyone who played it at -3). Dallas and Green Bay did…
For the first year, Massey-Peabody Analytics will now provide weekly college football ratings and picks. This post will explain the basics of the rating system. Right now, all our college football content will be posted on the blog, but we should have a new section on the site in a week or two that will…