This is our favorite contest of the year. So many narratives! We ignore them all, staying only with a few formulas written in August. We see your coaching changes, draft entries, and don’t-want-to-be-theres. They’re all compelling stories, it’s just that it’s hard to sort the ones that matter from those that don’t. We’ve learned to stay with the model. ‘Sides, anytime scoring depends on getting confidence right we have a leg up. In short: This entry will kick your entry’s butt! We give it 40.
(One little caveat: Who the hell knows if they’re going to even *play* the Holiday Bowl. You’re on your own on what to do with that.)
| Date | Bowl | Team1 | Team2 | Mkt Line | MP Line | MP Prob | Confidence |
| 26-Dec | St. Petersburg | Miami (OH) | Mississippi State | -13 | -19.60 | 0.91 | 40 |
| 30-Dec | Arizona | South Alabama | Air Force | -12.5 | -19.52 | 0.91 | 39 |
| 27-Dec | Heart of Dallas | Army | North Texas | 10 | 14.98 | 0.15 | 38 |
| 22-Dec | Potato | Colorado State | Idaho | 13.5 | 12.96 | 0.18 | 37 |
| 19-Dec | Miami Beach | Central Michigan | Tulsa | -11 | -12.06 | 0.80 | 36 |
| 29-Dec | Birmingham | South Florida | South Carolina | 10 | 11.41 | 0.21 | 35 |
| 21-Dec | Poinsettia | Brigham Young | Wyoming | 8.5 | 10.46 | 0.23 | 34 |
| 28-Dec | Pinstripe | Northwestern | Pittsburgh | -4.5 | -10.23 | 0.77 | 33 |
| 31-Dec | Peach | Washington | Alabama | -16.5 | -10.05 | 0.76 | 32 |
| 17-Dec | New Mexico | UTSA | New Mexico | -7.5 | -9.97 | 0.76 | 31 |
| 30-Dec | Music City | Nebraska | Tennessee | -3 | -8.96 | 0.74 | 30 |
| 20-Dec | Boca Raton | Memphis | Western Kentucky | -5 | -8.91 | 0.74 | 29 |
| 27-Dec | Military | Wake Forest | Temple | -13 | -8.37 | 0.72 | 28 |
| 27-Dec | Cactus | Baylor | Boise State | -7.5 | -7.81 | 0.71 | 27 |
| 28-Dec | Foster Farms | Indiana | Utah | -7.5 | -7.10 | 0.69 | 26 |
| 2-Jan | Cotton | Western Michigan | Wisconsin | -7.5 | -6.40 | 0.68 | 25 |
| 27-Dec | Holiday | Washington State | Minnesota | 6.5 | 6.00 | 0.33 | 24 |
| 24-Dec | Hawaii | Middle Tennessee | Hawaii | 5.99 | 0.33 | 23 | |
| 29-Dec | Belk | Arkansas | Virginia Tech | -7 | -5.87 | 0.66 | 22 |
| 23-Dec | Bahamas | Eastern Michigan | Old Dominion | -4 | -5.23 | 0.65 | 21 |
| 26-Dec | Quick Lane | Maryland | Boston College | 1 | -4.95 | 0.64 | 20 |
| 2-Jan | Rose | USC | Penn State | 6.5 | 4.79 | 0.36 | 19 |
| 23-Dec | Go Daddy | Ohio | Troy | -3.5 | -4.65 | 0.63 | 18 |
| 17-Dec | Camellia | Appalachian State | Toledo | -1 | 3.36 | 0.40 | 17 |
| 30-Dec | Sun | North Carolina | Stanford | -3.5 | -3.19 | 0.59 | 16 |
| 28-Dec | Russell Athletic | West Virginia | Miami (FL) | -3 | 3.05 | 0.41 | 15 |
| 26-Dec | Independence | Vanderbilt | North Carolina State | -4 | -3.05 | 0.59 | 14 |
| 30-Dec | Liberty | TCU | Georgia | -1 | -2.30 | 0.57 | 13 |
| 17-Dec | Las Vegas | Houston | San Diego State | 3.5 | -2.20 | 0.56 | 12 |
| 31-Dec | Taxslayer | Kentucky | Georgia Tech | -3.5 | -1.93 | 0.56 | 11 |
| 17-Dec | Cure | Arkansas State | UCF | -5.5 | 1.62 | 0.45 | 10 |
| 29-Dec | Alamo | Oklahoma State | Colorado | -3 | 1.60 | 0.45 | 9 |
| 30-Dec | Orange | Florida State | Michigan | -7 | -1.48 | 0.54 | 8 |
| 17-Dec | New Orleans | Southern Miss | Louisiana-Lafayette | 6 | 1.25 | 0.46 | 7 |
| 23-Dec | Armed Forces | Louisiana Tech | Navy | 5.5 | -1.23 | 0.54 | 6 |
| 28-Dec | Texas | Kansas State | Texas A&M | -2 | -0.89 | 0.53 | 5 |
| 2-Jan | Sugar | Auburn | Oklahoma | -3.5 | -0.71 | 0.52 | 4 |
| 31-Dec | Fiesta | Ohio State | Clemson | 3.5 | -0.66 | 0.52 | 3 |
| 2-Jan | Outback | Iowa | Florida | -2.5 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 2 |
| 31-Dec | Citrus | LSU | Louisville | 3.5 | -0.06 | 0.50 | 1 |
