CFB Week 10 Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that matter from a predictive standpoint. Percentile rating and score diff are measured relative to historical norms over the past 12 seasons.

The big surprise this week is that LSU slots in as the number two team, despite losing by two touchdowns to Alabama. I think this is great, because it shows how much context matters. Why isn’t Alabama higher than LSU? We’re not saying Alabama played worse statistically than LSU — they didn’t. But LSU had to face Alabama, the best team in the country. And Alabama had an easier task in playing LSU on the road.

#	season	week	tm	opp	tm score	opp score	pctile rating	score diff
1	2017	10	Iowa	Ohio State	55	24	0.964	28.7
2	2017	10	LSU	Alabama	10	24	0.959	27.7
3	2017	10	Auburn	Texas A&M	42	27	0.957	27.4
4	2017	10	San Diego State	San Jose State	52	7	0.956	27.3
5	2017	10	Washington	Oregon	38	3	0.953	26.7
6	2017	10	Miami (FL)	Virginia Tech	28	10	0.950	26.2
7	2017	10	Missouri	Florida	45	16	0.944	25.4
8	2017	10	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State	62	52	0.938	24.5
9	2017	10	Army	Air Force	21	0	0.936	24.3
10	2017	10	Michigan	Minnesota	33	10	0.928	23.3
11	2017	10	Wisconsin	Indiana	45	17	0.913	21.7
12	2017	10	TCU	Texas	24	7	0.899	20.4
13	2017	10	Washington State	Stanford	24	21	0.895	20.0
14	2017	10	Georgia	South Carolina	24	10	0.880	18.7
15	2017	10	USC	Arizona	49	35	0.879	18.7
16	2017	10	Utah	UCLA	48	17	0.867	17.7
17	2017	10	Northwestern	Nebraska	31	24	0.849	16.4
18	2017	10	Alabama	LSU	24	10	0.844	16.1
19	2017	10	Vanderbilt	Western Kentucky	31	17	0.841	16.0
20	2017	10	Virginia	Georgia Tech	40	36	0.838	15.7
21	2017	10	Clemson	North Carolina State	38	31	0.838	15.7
22	2017	10	Michigan State	Penn State	27	24	0.825	14.9
23	2017	10	North Carolina State	Clemson	31	38	0.809	14.0
24	2017	10	West Virginia	Iowa State	20	16	0.809	13.9
25	2017	10	California	Oregon State	37	23	0.799	13.4
26	2017	10	Notre Dame	Wake Forest	48	37	0.798	13.3
27	2017	10	Syracuse	Florida State	24	27	0.773	11.9
28	2017	10	Kansas State	Texas Tech	42	35	0.763	11.4
29	2017	10	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma	52	62	0.747	10.6
30	2017	10	Purdue	Illinois	29	10	0.740	10.3
31	2017	10	Memphis	Tulsa	41	14	0.728	9.7
32	2017	10	UCF	Southern Methodist	31	24	0.726	9.6
33	2017	10	Bowling Green	Kent State	44	16	0.720	9.3
34	2017	10	Wake Forest	Notre Dame	37	48	0.709	8.8
35	2017	10	Penn State	Michigan State	24	27	0.706	8.7
36	2017	10	Baylor	Kansas	38	9	0.690	7.9
37	2017	10	Central Michigan	Western Michigan	35	28	0.683	7.6
38	2017	10	Rutgers	Maryland	31	24	0.681	7.5
39	2017	10	Temple	Navy	34	26	0.680	7.5
40	2017	10	Ole Miss	Kentucky	37	34	0.672	7.1
41	2017	10	South Carolina	Georgia	10	24	0.671	7.1
42	2017	10	Boise State	Nevada	41	14	0.651	6.2
43	2017	10	Arizona State	Colorado	41	30	0.635	5.5
44	2017	10	Cincinnati	Tulane	17	16	0.635	5.5
45	2017	10	Texas	TCU	7	24	0.605	4.3
46	2017	10	Florida State	Syracuse	27	24	0.604	4.2
47	2017	10	Arizona	USC	35	49	0.592	3.7
48	2017	10	Northern Illinois	Toledo	17	27	0.585	3.4
49	2017	10	Houston	East Carolina	52	27	0.580	3.2
50	2017	10	North Texas	Louisiana Tech	24	23	0.573	2.9
51	2017	10	Mississippi State	Massachusetts	34	23	0.570	2.8
52	2017	10	Louisiana-Monroe	Appalachian State	52	45	0.550	2.0
53	2017	10	South Florida	Connecticut	37	20	0.535	1.4
54	2017	10	Virginia Tech	Miami (FL)	10	28	0.516	0.6
55	2017	10	Ohio State	Iowa	24	55	0.515	0.6
56	2017	10	Stanford	Washington State	21	24	0.507	0.3
57	2017	10	Southern Miss	Tennessee	10	24	0.506	0.3
58	2017	10	Oregon	Washington	3	38	0.502	0.1
59	2017	10	Massachusetts	Mississippi State	23	34	0.501	0.0
60	2017	10	Ohio	Miami (OH)	45	28	0.487	-0.5
61	2017	10	Wyoming	Colorado State	16	13	0.483	-0.7
62	2017	10	Kentucky	Ole Miss	34	37	0.467	-1.3
63	2017	10	Brigham Young	Fresno State	13	20	0.459	-1.7
64	2017	10	Colorado	Arizona State	30	41	0.453	-1.9
65	2017	10	Eastern Michigan	Ball State	56	14	0.444	-2.2
66	2017	10	Toledo	Northern Illinois	27	17	0.439	-2.4
67	2017	10	Texas A&M	Auburn	27	42	0.438	-2.5
68	2017	10	Idaho	Troy	21	24	0.423	-3.1
69	2017	10	Florida Atlantic	Marshall	30	25	0.405	-3.8
70	2017	10	Tennessee	Southern Miss	24	10	0.404	-3.9
71	2017	10	Texas Tech	Kansas State	35	42	0.398	-4.1
72	2017	10	Utah State	New Mexico	24	10	0.397	-4.1
73	2017	10	Colorado State	Wyoming	13	16	0.397	-4.2
74	2017	10	Middle Tennessee	UTEP	30	3	0.394	-4.3
75	2017	10	Southern Methodist	UCF	24	31	0.385	-4.7
76	2017	10	Louisiana-Lafayette	South Alabama	19	14	0.372	-5.2
77	2017	10	Indiana	Wisconsin	17	45	0.369	-5.3
78	2017	10	UCLA	Utah	17	48	0.362	-5.6
79	2017	10	Iowa State	West Virginia	16	20	0.360	-5.7
80	2017	10	Miami (OH)	Ohio	28	45	0.343	-6.4
81	2017	10	Fresno State	Brigham Young	20	13	0.343	-6.5
82	2017	10	Marshall	Florida Atlantic	25	30	0.338	-6.7
83	2017	10	Georgia Tech	Virginia	36	40	0.337	-6.7
84	2017	10	Florida International	UTSA	14	7	0.307	-8.0
85	2017	10	UTSA	Florida International	7	14	0.290	-8.8
86	2017	10	Connecticut	South Florida	20	37	0.262	-10.1
87	2017	10	Hawaii	UNLV	23	31	0.253	-10.6
88	2017	10	New Mexico State	Texas State	45	35	0.252	-10.7
89	2017	10	Charlotte	Old Dominion	0	6	0.238	-11.4
90	2017	10	Navy	Temple	26	34	0.233	-11.6
91	2017	10	Minnesota	Michigan	10	33	0.224	-12.1
92	2017	10	Nebraska	Northwestern	24	31	0.211	-12.8
93	2017	10	Tulsa	Memphis	14	41	0.210	-12.8
94	2017	10	Georgia State	Georgia Southern	21	17	0.199	-13.5
95	2017	10	UNLV	Hawaii	31	23	0.198	-13.6
96	2017	10	Florida	Missouri	16	45	0.194	-13.7
97	2017	10	New Mexico	Utah State	10	24	0.194	-13.8
98	2017	10	Western Michigan	Central Michigan	28	35	0.191	-14.0
99	2017	10	Oregon State	California	23	37	0.190	-14.0
100	2017	10	Nevada	Boise State	14	41	0.184	-14.4
101	2017	10	Troy	Idaho	24	21	0.183	-14.4
102	2017	10	Georgia Southern	Georgia State	17	21	0.179	-14.7
103	2017	10	East Carolina	Houston	27	52	0.173	-15.0
104	2017	10	Maryland	Rutgers	24	31	0.140	-17.2
105	2017	10	Appalachian State	Louisiana-Monroe	45	52	0.124	-18.4
106	2017	10	Ball State	Eastern Michigan	14	56	0.114	-19.2
107	2017	10	Illinois	Purdue	10	29	0.110	-19.6
108	2017	10	Western Kentucky	Vanderbilt	17	31	0.104	-20.0
109	2017	10	South Alabama	Louisiana-Lafayette	14	19	0.098	-20.6
110	2017	10	Tulane	Cincinnati	16	17	0.098	-20.7
111	2017	10	Texas State	New Mexico State	35	45	0.090	-21.3
112	2017	10	Louisiana Tech	North Texas	23	24	0.086	-21.8
113	2017	10	Air Force	Army	0	21	0.075	-22.9
114	2017	10	Old Dominion	Charlotte	6	0	0.075	-23.0
115	2017	10	UTEP	Middle Tennessee	3	30	0.045	-27.1
116	2017	10	Kansas	Baylor	9	38	0.039	-28.1
117	2017	10	Kent State	Bowling Green	16	44	0.004	-42.0
118	2017	10	San Jose State	San Diego State	7	52	0.004	-42.8

Author: Rufus

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