Excellent start to the season, with a 4-0 record on our official plays. We did lose our lean on Baylor, but still very happy with our Week 1 performance. Not only did all four official picks cover, but they all won outright as underdogs of more than a touchdown! A $100 parlay of all four plays at the Pinnacle closing moneyline would have won $14,951!
If you followed Massey-Peabody last year, you know that I love talking about line moves. The closing line is more efficient than the opening (or mid-week) line, so line moves toward the Massey-Peabody line are a great indicator of its value. Every week, I summarize the value of the previous week’s pick number relative to the closing line. This past week we had solid line movement, despite the late release of the plays, averaging more than a point and a half of value.
- Texas A&M: picked at +10.5, closed at +9, closing line value (CLV) +1.5
- W. Kentucky: picked at +7.5, closed at +6.5, CLV +1
- Rutgers: picked at +8, closed at +7.5, CLV +0.5
- California: picked at +11, closed at +7.5, CLV +3.5
- Baylor (lean): picked at +33, closed at +31.5, CLV +1.5
On to this week’s picks… Lines widely available as of 4:45pm EDT on Tuesday. As always, we don’t factor in matchup specifics, situational factors, weather, or injuries (except a prior adjustment for the QB). Lines are based on our power ratings, adjusted for pace of play.
Pick criteria: Big Plays have a 55%+ chance of covering; Other Plays are 54%-55%; MP Leans are 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilites are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Big Plays (1-0 YTD)
- Iowa State +12 vs. Kansas State
Other Plays (3-0 YTD)
- Tennessee -16 vs. Arkansas State
- Mississippi State -27.5 vs. UAB
- Tulane +10 vs. Georgia Tech
MP Leans (0-1 YTD)
- Auburn -31 vs. San Jose State
- Colorado State +10.5 at Boise State
