Thought we’d drop our projections early in the week rather than late. These are the 19 teams we see with at least a 2% chance of making the playoff.
Playoff bracket currently goes Alabama-Oklahoma-Clemson-Washington. Both OU and Washington benefit this week from a conference rival weakening (Okie State and USC), bumping up in the pecking order.
Ohio State still our big favorite in the Big 10. Spots 6-11 are the conference #2s, plus Penn State. Spots 12-16 are conference #3s, plus Michigan. Then the twin AAC leaders and an Oregon team, who our algorithm doesn’t realize lost their QB this week.
We have a more complete write-up here.
| Team | MP | MP Rank | E(Ws) | E(Ls) | P(L<2) | Conf Champ | Playoff |
| Alabama | 35.59 | 1 | 11.6 | 0.4 | 95% | 69% | 74% |
| Oklahoma | 26.77 | 4 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 77% | 61% | 56% |
| Clemson | 27.02 | 3 | 11.3 | 0.7 | 83% | 54% | 55% |
| Washington | 22.81 | 5 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 72% | 46% | 44% |
| Ohio State | 29.00 | 2 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 57% | 58% | 41% |
| Wisconsin | 18.87 | 11 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 66% | 26% | 22% |
| Miami (FL) | 20.36 | 8 | 9.1 | 1.9 | 43% | 26% | 18% |
| TCU | 18.55 | 13 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 41% | 22% | 16% |
| Georgia | 21.04 | 7 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 55% | 17% | 15% |
| Penn State | 19.75 | 10 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 44% | 10% | 14% |
| USC | 18.84 | 12 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 25% | 35% | 11% |
| Auburn | 21.62 | 6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 7% | 10% | 5% |
| Michigan | 15.56 | 17 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 13% | 4% | 5% |
| Oklahoma State | 16.89 | 14 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 10% | 8% | 4% |
| Virginia Tech | 16.06 | 15 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 10% | 7% | 4% |
| Washington State | 10.63 | 26 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 7% | 3% | 2% |
| South Florida | 9.24 | 31 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 64% | 31% | 2% |
| Oregon | 14.54 | 20 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| UCF | 8.59 | 32 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 55% | 31% | 2% |
