Sorry to say that we’ll be pushing picks back to Thursday mornings. The good news and bad news is that publishing our picks appears to be having an impact on the market. I know that posting picks later means there may be less value, but I don’t have much of a choice in the matter, as I can’t justify compromising my own betting.
Week 8 Recap:
We came back down to earth last weekend, going 4-5 in a high volume week. Our Big Plays, which went 2-3, suffered some hard-luck losses. Oregon State (+3) fell by six in overtime to Utah and Northern Illinois (-11) failed to cover by one point vs. Miami (OH). Our one no doubt loss was South Alabama (-17.5), a three-point winner over Georgia State. Our two Big Play wins were both underdogs that won outright: Florida Atlantic (+6) rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit to win, and Southern Miss (+10) won by 10 at North Texas.
Our Other Plays went 2-2, with covers by North Carolina (+2.5) and Idaho (-4), tempered by BYU (-10) and Florida (-6) losses. Middle Tennessee (+1) won as our lone MP Lean.
Week 8 Closing Line Value:
We had easily our best week of the year in line move value. Not a single game, moved against us, and almost all games moved multiple points our way.
- Oregon State: picked +3, closed +1.5, CLV +1.5
- Northern Illinois: picked -11, closed -13.5, CLV +2.5
- Southern Miss: picked +10, closed +7.5, CLV +2.5
- South Alabama: picked -17.5, closed -19.5, CLV +2.0
- Florida Atlantic: picked +6, closed +3, CLV +3.0
- North Carolina: picked +2.5, closed -2, CLV +4.5
- Brigham Young: picked -10, closed -10, CLV 0.0
- Idaho: picked -4, closed -6, CLV +2.0
- Florida: picked -6, closed -6.75, CLV +0.75
- *Middle Tennessee: picked +1, closed -2, CLV +3.0
Week 9 Picks:
Our lines are calculated by taking the difference in MP power ratings and adjusting for home field, and a 1.5 point bonus for teams coming off byes. We further adjust for pace of play. Lines are Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 8:45am Vegas time on Thursday morning.
Big Plays have a >55% chance of covering; Other Plays 54-55%; MP Leans 53.5%-54%. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of MP lines calculated using the closing line. Since we expect line movement in our favor, these probabilities are conservatives.
Big Plays (11-6 YTD)
- Illinois +6.5 vs. Minnesota
- Toledo -16.5 vs. Massachusetts
- UCLA -13.5 at Colorado
- Kent State +7 at Miami (OH)
Other Plays (19-12 YTD)
- Miami (FL) -1.5 at Virginia Tech
- Alabama -17 at Tennessee
- Rice -14 vs. North Texas
MP Leans (7-8-1 YTD)
- North Carolina +6.5 at Virginia