Week 6 Recap:
Only had one official play last week, a Big Play on Miami, which either won or pushed depending on what line you got. That will get graded as half a win and half a push (per what I wrote last week). If you got it at +3 that is certainly a tough break, since Green Bay had no business winning the game. But, as three Vegas-effecting pick-sixes in the final two minutes of Week 6 action demonstrated, randomness isn’t that unusual. We had two Break-Even or Better games, which–per usual this season–lost.
Week 6 Closing Line Value
- Miami: picked at +3.25, closed +1.5, CLV +1.75
- *NY Giants: picked at +2.75, closed +1.5, CLV +1.25
- *Buffalo: picked at +3, closed -1, CLV +4.0
Excellent week on the line move front, with every game moving hard towards our number.
Week 7 Picks:
This week’s picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 8:00pm Vegas time on Wednesday. As usual, we do not account for matchup factors or injuries (except QB). M-P lines are based on M-P ratings and a standard home field advantage, as well as adjustments for extra rest (byes and Thursday games).
Break-Even or Better selections should cover the spread between 52.5% and 54% on the time, our Other Plays 54%-55%, and our Big Plays should win more than 55% of the time. Our estimate for each game is based on our line for the game, regressed appropriately towards the market number, as well as the value of different points. How much we weight the market’s number is based on the historical predictive power of the closing line relative to our line. This makes our estimates conservative, since we generally expect lines to move in our direction.
Big Plays (7.5-3-0.5 YTD)
- Carolina +7 at Green Bay [MP Line: CAR +4.4]
- New Orleans +2.5/+3 at Detroit [MP Line: NO -1.3]
- Kansas City +4 at San Diego [MP Line: KC +0.8]
Other Plays (3-3 YTD)
- no plays this week
Break-Even or Better (4-10 YTD)
- New England -9.5 vs. New York Jets [MP Line: NE -11.5]
- Buffalo -4.5 vs. Minnesota [MP Line: BUF -7.8]
- Seattle -6.5/-7 at St. Louis [MP Line: SEA -9.3]
Our lines (mean forecast, not median!) on the remaining games
- Indianapolis -3.3 vs. Cincinnati
- Washington -6.0 vs. Tennessee (assumes Whitehurst starting for TEN)
- Chicago -2.4 vs. Miami
- Cleveland -6.1 at Jacksonville
- Baltimore -8.1 vs. Atlanta
- Dallas -8.1 vs. New York Giants
- Arizona -5.5 at Arizona
- Denver -6.5 vs. San Francisco
- Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Houston