We’re going to try to update this week feature weekly. At the moment we’re just dropping our summary in here, showing the 27 teams our models give >2% chance of making the playoff. We organized them by conference because that will be a critical dynamic in the playoff conversation. We include our current power ranking, expected regular season wins, probability of winning the conference and probability of making the playoff. We’ll put more detail on our simulation process at the bottom of this note when we have the chance.
For a bracket we’re going with Alabama, Ohio State, Washington and Florida State. That last spot is a deadheat between FSU, Clemson and Oklahoma. We’re breaking the tie for the Seminoles because the committee will surely look more generously on a loss if it is to Alabama, something not (yet?) in our sim. But just because we make that bracket the most likely one doesn’t mean it’s likely! We’re seeing it only 1.2% of the time. Lots can happen in college football, so something unexpected usually does. Given the internal beating up likely to happen in the ACC and Big12 it could be a good year for another conference to land a second spot. E.g., both UDub and USC from the Pac12, or an Auburn to slip in along with Alabama.
Conf | Team | MP | MP Rank | E(Wins) | Prob(Conf) | Prob(Playoff) |
ACC | Florida State | 23.6 | 3 | 9.6 | 35% | 24% |
ACC | Clemson | 20.7 | 4 | 9.3 | 21% | 20% |
ACC | Miami (FL) | 13.5 | 15 | 8.4 | 13% | 7% |
ACC | Louisville | 17.1 | 9 | 9.2 | 11% | 13% |
ACC | Virginia Tech | 12.0 | 21 | 8.5 | 9% | 6% |
ACC | North Carolina State | 11.6 | 23 | 7.4 | 4% | 3% |
Big10 | Ohio State | 27.1 | 2 | 10.9 | 56% | 57% |
Big10 | Wisconsin | 15.3 | 14 | 9.8 | 17% | 15% |
Big10 | Michigan | 16.2 | 12 | 8.9 | 11% | 11% |
Big10 | Penn State | 16.5 | 11 | 9.2 | 9% | 12% |
Big10 | Northwestern | 8.0 | 31 | 7.9 | 4% | 3% |
Big12 | Oklahoma | 19.9 | 6 | 9.6 | 47% | 24% |
Big12 | Texas | 13.2 | 17 | 8.3 | 17% | 8% |
Big12 | TCU | 11.9 | 22 | 8.2 | 12% | 6% |
Big12 | Oklahoma State | 9.5 | 26 | 7.6 | 10% | 4% |
Big12 | Kansas State | 9.4 | 27 | 7.9 | 9% | 5% |
PAC12 | USC | 17.8 | 8 | 9.2 | 33% | 19% |
PAC12 | Washington | 18.9 | 7 | 10.1 | 32% | 30% |
PAC12 | Stanford | 15.5 | 13 | 8.4 | 16% | 10% |
PAC12 | Washington State | 10.2 | 24 | 7.5 | 5% | 4% |
PAC12 | Oregon | 7.9 | 32 | 7.0 | 3% | 2% |
SEC | Alabama | 30.6 | 1 | 10.9 | 58% | 59% |
SEC | Auburn | 20.0 | 5 | 8.9 | 14% | 13% |
SEC | Florida | 13.1 | 18 | 7.6 | 8% | 3% |
SEC | Georgia | 13.5 | 16 | 8.0 | 7% | 4% |
SEC | Tennessee | 12.3 | 19 | 7.8 | 5% | 3% |
SEC | LSU | 16.9 | 10 | 8.2 | 5% | 7% |
Ind | Notre Dame | 12.2 | 20 | 7.8 | 0% | 5% |