Recapping another losing week isn’t fun. So I’ll keep it succinct. Not the start to the season we were hoping for, but in the words of Nick Saban (…and Sam Hinkie) we will “trust the process” as we always have. Not unexpected at all to have runs like we have the first three weeks. Chicago did not come close to covering as a 7/7.5-point dog, dropping our Big Plays to 0-3 on the year. Buffalo (+4) was an easy winner, but that was offset by Cincinnati (-3/-3.5) losing at home to Denver. The really painful ending was San Diego (+2.5) giving up a long touchdown to T.Y. Hilton in the final minute when Indianapolis only needed a FG for a win where we would still have gotten the cover. It happens. There’s no use stressing over what you can’t control.
A lot of the value I found in this week’s slate is gone due to line movement. I know posting later in the week means there isn’t as much value, but there is a (admittedly selfish) reason for that, and we don’t charge, and no, we won’t accept money to give you the picks early (so stop asking).
On to the picks…
Big Plays (0-3 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (2-3 YTD)
- Tampa Bay +3 vs. Denver [MP Line: TB +0.8]
- Kansas City +5 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: KC +2.8]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (1-2 YTD)
- Atlanta +3 vs. Carolina [MP Line: ATL +1.3]
- Tennessee +4.5 at Houston [MP Line: TEN +2.8]
- San Francisco +2 vs. Dallas [MP Line: SF -0.1]
M-P True Lines on Remaining Games
- Cincinnati -7.0 vs. Miami (TNF)
- Indianapolis -3.2 vs. Jacksonville (in London)
- Washington -7.1 vs. Cleveland
- New England -3.4 vs. Buffalo (assumes Garoppolo starting for NE)
- Seattle -2.3 at New York Jets
- Detroit -2.3 at Chicago
- Baltimore -3.8 vs. Oakland
- San Diego -5.0 vs. New Orleans
- Arizona -7.9 vs. Los Angeles
- Minnesota -4.7 vs. New York Giants
