It’s the final week of the regular season, and an unusually large number of playoff-bound teams have little to no incentive to win. Two teams (Kansas City and the LA Rams) have announced that they will be resting their key starters, which makes a lot of sense given their position and that they won’t have to worry about rust, since they’ll be playing in the wild card round. Jacksonville and Philadelphia are both locked into a seed, and the market seems to think they’ll rest players. The Jags have publicly said they will play to win, but does that mean their starters will play the whole game? Philadelphia is in the unique position of having clinched the #1 seed, but starting a backup quarterback who could possibly use the game reps. What they decide to do is anyone’s guess. Then, there’s a group of double-digit favorites who have differing degrees of motivation: New England needs to win (or have Pittsburgh lose) to lock up the #1 seed. However, they’re playing the Jets, and are a huge favorite, so I’d expect them to pull Tom Brady in the second half if the game is in hand. Mike Tomlin, realizing that a Patriots win is all but certain, has stated that he’s thinking about resting Roethlisberger, Bell, and other key starters. Lastly, the Vikings can lock up a first-round bye with a win, but even if they lose, it would require another three-team parlay for Minnesota to have to play next weekend.
So here’s the plan for this week: we’ll post plays for the games where I feel like I don’t have to play armchair psychologist, and I’ll post what we would make the lines on the other games if the teams were playing at full strength — that means with their starting QB — and let you all do what you want with those.
Big Plays (20-25-3 YTD)
- Green Bay +6.5 at Detroit [MP Line: GB +3.7]
- Miami +2.5 vs. Buffalo [MP Line: MIA -1.9]
- Houston +5.5 at Indianapolis [MP Line: HOU -1.7]
- NY Giants +3 vs. Washington [MP Line: NYG -0.3]
- Oakland +7.5 at LA Chargers [MP Line: OAK +5.6]
Other Plays (22.5-7-0.5 YTD)
- Cincinnati +9.5 at Baltimore [MP Line: CIN +7.1]
Break-Even or Better (unofficial leans) (14.5-11-1.5 YTD)
- Carolina +4 at Atlanta [MP Line: CAR +2.4]
- Tampa Bay +6.5 vs. New Orleans [MP Line: TB +4.8]
Our Lines on Remaining (Normal) Games
- Seattle -9.5 vs. Arizona
MP Lines on “Weird” Games (these numbers assume both teams at full strength; figure out the motivation yourself if you’re so inclined)
- New England -18.1 vs. NY Jets
- Jacksonville -0.8 at Tennessee
- Pittsburgh -16.9 vs. Cleveland
- LA Rams -15.5 vs. San Francisco
- Minnesota -13.9 vs. Chicago
- Philadelphia -5.1 vs. Dallas
- Kansas City -4.0 at Denver
