Week 11 Recap:
Week 11 was tough on a number of levels. We finished with a 1-2 record on official plays, and a 1-1 record on Break-Even or Better selections. That doesn’t tell the full story though. We whiffed pretty badly on the Washington (-7) pick, as the dysfunctional Dead Skins lost to Tampa Bay at home by 20. Buoyed by a strong second half, Miami (-5) got the cover for us on Thursday night vs. Buffalo. But we were on the wrong side of some bad fortune with our Giants (+4) pick. Eli Manning had thrown 4 interceptions, but the Giants still had a chance to cover (and win) with 5 minutes remaining and first down at the 49ers’ 4-yard line. After three straight unsuccessful fades(!), Coughlin decided to, correctly, forgo the field goal–which would have given us the backdoor cover–and go for it. Manning INT. We lose. We also had a chance to win our Carolina (+1) BEOB pick, but Graham Gano missed a field goal in the final minutes, then another one (albeit a 62-yarder) as time expired. We did get the win with Tennessee (+6) covering in a loss to Pittsburgh.
Week 11 Closing Line Value
By far our worst week of the year in closing line value. In fact, I think it’s the only week lines have moved against us overall. And it was the difference between a win and a loss in the Carolina game.
- Washington: picked -7, closed -6.5, CLV -0.5
- Miami: picked -5, closed -3.75, CLV -1.25
- NY Giants: picked +4, closed +4, CLV 0.0
- *Carolina: picked +1, closed +2.5, CLV -1.5
- *Tennessee: picked +6, closed +7, CLV +1.0
Week 12 Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 11:50am PST. I am listing Indy at both -13.5 and -14 since the offshore market is generally at -13.5, while Vegas is primarily -14.
Big Plays (11.5-7-0.5 YTD)
- Miami +7 at Denver [MP Line: MIA +3.4]
- Baltimore +3/+3.5 at New Orleans [MP Line: BAL +0.2]
Other Plays (8-5 YTD)
- Indianapolis -13.5/-14 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: IND -16.8]
- Washington +9 at San Francisco [MP Line: WAS +6.7]
Break-Even or Better (7-14 YTD)
- Kansas City -7 at Oakland [MP Line: KC -10.0] (already posted)
- Atlanta -3/-3.5 vs. Cleveland [MP Line: ATL -5.1]
- Chicago -6 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: CHI -8.4]
- Seattle -6.5 vs. Arizona [MP Line: SEA -8.8]
- Dallas -3/-3.5 at New York Giants [MP Line: DAL -5.4]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- Philadelphia -10.2 vs. Tennessee
- New England -7.6 vs. Detroit
- Green Bay -10.9 at Minnesota
- Houston -1.5 vs. Cincinnati
- San Diego -3.8 vs. St. Louis
I’m omitting the Bills/Jets game (we would make Buffalo a 6.7-point favorite at home), due to the wide range of prices I’m seeing, and the possibility of the game being postponed or moved.
