We had a decent performance last week, going 0-1 on Big Plays, 2-0 on Other Plays, and 1-1-1 on Break-Even or Better selections. There was a lot of line movement on games we picked: Green Bay, our big selection, moved from +6 all the way to +3, Arizona moved from -6.5 to -9.5, and Carolina moved from -2.5 to -3. Favorable line moves on all three “official” picks. On the other hand, Minnesota and Houston both moved significantly against us, moving from +12 to +13.5, and +7 to +10.5, respectively, though the Oakland move may have had something to do with Pryor being ruled out.
For this week’s picks, lines are widely available as of 2:15pm EST on Wednesday afternoon. As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
Big Plays (9-8-1 YTD)
- Atlanta +9.5 vs. New Orleans [MP= +5.8]
- San Diego +4.5 at Kansas City [MP= +1.4]
- Dallas +2.5 at New York Giants [MP= -2.8]
Other Plays (24-16 YTD)
- Tennessee +1 at Oakland [MP= -2.6]
- Washington +5 vs. San Francisco [MP= +2.6]
- Tampa Bay +9 at Detroit [MP= +6.9]
Break-Even or Better (9-8-1 YTD)
- St. Louis -1 vs. Chicago [MP= -2.7]
- Baltimore -4 vs. New York Jets [MP= -6.4]