Coming off of an excellent weekend! Went up to New Haven for the Yale/Harvard game, and then watched the Massey-Peabody picks nearly go undefeated. (Naturally, it was my Redskins that kept us from perfection.) Overall, M-P picks went 7-1 on the weekend, including 3-0 on our Big Plays. The market generally agreed with our numbers, as lines moved an average of 1.31 points toward the M-P line in games we picked.
This week is going to be light. No Big Plays and our two qualifying Other Plays are on the low end of the spectrum (54.0% and 54.1% expected cover rate). Lines are widely available as of 7:30pm EST on Tuesday evening. As usual, we do not consider injuries (except QB) or matchup factors; the lines are based purely on our ratings, plus home-field advantage, and an adjustment for teams coming off of byes and Thursday games.
Big Plays (12-8-1 YTD)
- none this week
Other Plays (26-17 YTD)
- Carolina -8 vs. Tampa Bay [MP= -11.9]
- Houston +7.5 vs. New England [MP= +6.1]
Break-Even or Better (11-8-1 YTD)
- Dallas -9.5 vs. Oakland [MP= -11.9]
- Green Bay +6 at Detroit [MP= +4.1]
- Cincinnati +1.5 at San Diego [MP= -1.3]
- Miami +1.5 at New York Jets [MP= -1.4]