Week 15 Recap
We continued our late-season swoon with another subpar performance. Our Big Plays went 0-3, their worst mark of the season so far. They drop to a barely-profitable 52.5% on the season. Baltimore (-14) came out very flat, and struggled just to beat the Jaguars outright, never threatening the cover. Miami (+7.5) had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown on its first drive. The Fins clawed back though, and only trailed 14-13 at halftime; they then gave up 27 unanswered in the second half. Ouch. In an unwatchable game, Tennessee (+2.5/+3) held a slim lead throughout before the Jets scored a late fourth quarter touchdown to win by five.
Our Other Plays went a disappointing 2-2-1. Continuing the theme of late touchdowns hurting us, Carolina (-3/-3.5) gave up a late touchdown on a Josh McCown 16-yard run (on 3rd & 11!) which gave Tampa the backdoor cover. A stop on that play would have forced a field goal, and left our cover in order. San Francisco (+10), despite leading by four at halftime, gave up 14 unanswered in the second half, so we settle for a push. Chicago (+3) continued to be astonishingly bad, and was blown out at home. We managed to cover with Kansas City (-10.5) blowing out Oakland, and Minnesota (+7.5) covering in a losing effort.
Our Break-Even or Better, which have struggled mightily all year, went 2-1, with victories by Dallas (+3/+3.5) and Cincinnati (+1.5) more than offsetting our Atlanta (+2) loss.
Week 15 Closing Line Value
This was by far our worst week of the season in terms of closing line value, as the majority of games moved against us.
- Baltimore: picked -14, closed -14, CLV 0.0
- Miami: picked +7.5, closed +9.25, CLV -1.75
- Tennessee: picked +2.75, closed +3.25, CLV -0.5
- Carolina: picked -3.25, closed -3.5, CLV +0.25
- San Francisco: picked +10, closed +9.25, CLV +0.75
- Chicago: picked +3, closed +3.25, CLV -1.0
- Kansas City: picked -10.5, closed -11, CLV +0.5
- Minnesota: picked +7.5, closed +8, CLV -0.5
- *Dallas: picked +3.25, closed +3.25, CLV 0.0
- *Atlanta: picked +2, closed +3, CLV -1.0
- *Cincinnati: picked +1.5, closed +2.5, CLV -1.0
Week 16 Picks
First of all, I wanted to say that the recent struggles are not, in my opinion, cause for any alarm. As I say quite often, variance is the number one determinant of short-run success. And we are still hitting a quite profitable 55.7% for the season on official plays.
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on consensus lines as of 10:15pm PST Thursday.
Big Plays (15.5-14-0.5 YTD)
- Tennessee +3.5 at Jacksonville [MP Line: TEN +0.4]
- Chicago +9 vs. Detroit [MP Line: CHI +2.4]
- Kansas City +3 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: KC -0.7]
- Arizona +8 vs. Seattle [MP Line: ARI +5.2]
Other Plays (14-10-1 YTD)
- San Francisco -1 vs. San Diego [MP Line: SF -3.5]
- Washington +7/+7.5 vs. Philadelphia [MP Line: WAS +4.9]
- ADD: Carolina -3.5 vs. Cleveland [MP Line: CAR -7.8]
Break-Even or Better (12-21.5-0.5 YTD)
- Miami -6.5 vs. Minnesota [MP Line: MIA -9.0]
MP Leans (means, not medians) on remaining games
- Green Bay -10.4 at Tampa Bay
- New Orleans -5.8 vs. Atlanta
- New England -11.4 at New York Jets
- Baltimore -6.0 at Houston
- St. Louis -6.7 vs. New York Giants
- Buffalo -7.3 at Oakland
- Dallas -1.5 vs. Indianapolis
- Denver -4.8 at Cincinnati
*Carolina pick added at 1:05pm PST on Thursday. Game was off-the-board most places when picks were published on Wednesday.
