Week 16 Recap
Merry Christmas!
Our late-season slide continued last week, with our official plays going 3-4. Our Big Plays took the hit, going 1-3 and dropping our YTD record to below 50% for the first time this season (49.3%). Tennessee (+3.5) blew a 10-point first half lead and lost by 8; Chicago (+9) almost won outright, giving us a fairly easy cover; Kansas City (+3) failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities, and fell, 20-12. And Arizona (+8) continued to miss having a real quarterback, collapsing in the fourth quarter and losing by 29. Our Other Plays went 2-1, pulling them up to 16-11-1. San Francisco (-1) was one of the tougher losses to swallow. The Niners blew a 21-point halftime lead, due in large part to the fumble luck of the Chargers, who recovered all four fumbles. Washington (+7/+7.5) won outright, and Carolina (-3.5) squeaked out the cover by one point. Our one Break-Even or Better selection was Miami (-6.5), a loser.
So overall, heading into Week 17, we stand at a below-expectation but still profitable 53.7% on our official plays (32.5-28-1.5). But that makes our year sound a lot better than it has been. Though our Break-Even or Better selections are unofficial and mostly there for you action junkies, we still expect them to win around 53% of the time, so a 12-22.5-0.5 record is downright miserable. This certainly hasn’t been our best NFL season, but it’s not entirely unusual either. A year is a small sample, and given that our expectation is in the neighborhood of around 55% on our official plays, it’s almost inevitable that we’ll have unprofitable years due to randomness alone, just like we’ll have years hitting close to 60%. If you’ve just been playing our official plays, this year has still been profitable, however, if you have been playing any of our unofficial BEOB selections, you probably are not so fortunate.
Week 16 Closing Line Value
- Tennessee: picked +3.5, closed +4, CLV -0.5
- Chicago: picked +9, closed +10, CLV -1.0
- Kansas City: picked +3, closed +2.5, CLV +0.5
- Arizona: picked +8, closed +9.25, CLV -1.25
- Carolina: picked -3.5, closed -6, CLV +2.5
- San Francisco: picked -1, closed -2, CLV +1.0
- Washington: picked +7.25, closed +7, CLV +0.25
- *Miami: picked -6.5, closed -4.5, CLV -2.0
Week 17 Picks:
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on consensus lines as of 12:40pm PST Thursday.
Big Plays (16.5-17-0.5 YTD)
- Miami -6 vs. New York Jets [MP Line: MIA -12.9]
- Kansas City -3 vs. San Diego [MP Line: KC -6.9]
- Philadelphia +3/+2.5 at New York Giants [MP Line: PHI -1.2]
- St. Louis +12.5 at Seattle [MP Line: STL +7.4]
- ADD: Denver -14 vs. Oakland [MP Line: DEN -18.4]
Other Plays (16-11-1 YTD)
- Dallas -5.5 at Washington [MP Line: DAL -8.7]
Break-Even or Better (12-22.5-0.5 YTD)
- Carolina +4 at Atlanta [MP Line: CAR +2.4]
- New Orleans -4 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: NO -7.0]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
- Green Bay -9.5 vs. Detroit
- Houston -9.3 vs. Jacksonville
- Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Cincinnati
- Indianapolis -8.4 at Tennessee
- New England -9.8 vs. Buffalo (omitting as pick because NE has clinched #1 seed and may rest starters)
- Baltimore -12.6 vs. Cleveland (off the board due to CLE QB uncertainty; this line reflects Hoyer starting; will add pick once lines become widely available & QB situation becomes clear)
- Minnesota -6.4 vs. Chicago
- San Francisco -6.3 vs. Arizona
*Denver pick added Sunday morning at 7:10am PST.
